3 options for a 2009 Mariners Re-Draft

Mariners #3 choice: Zack Wheeler

Since it's highly unlikely the Mariners would have taken anyone actually drafted later than the 1st round in 2009, I'm selecting from the 49 1st round picks including the supplemental picks. Of course, the Giants drafted Zack Wheeler at #6, four picks after Ackley. He ended up with the Mets via the Carlos Beltran deal, where Wheeler put up a 3.77 ERA and a 100 ERA + over five seasons. He only had the five years because he underwent TJ surgery in March 2015, but he managed to start at least 29 games in three separate seasons for the Mets.

Would the Mariners have extended Wheeler and benefitted from the late blooming that the Phillies have enjoyed? Maybe, maybe not. It's difficult to ascertain if Wheeler would have been better or worse in the Mariners organization, so perhaps we should assume neutral development.

I have Wheeler at #3 instead of #2 largely because his elite performance, both in the regular season and postseason, has come after his free agency. His six years of team control under the Mets were solid, but they weren't elite and he wasn't considered a frontline starter. His tour in Philly has been a different story, a 51-28 record with a 2.95 ERA, what could a guy like that have meant for these late Mariner clubs?

Mariners #2 choice: AJ Pollock

Now let me explain, I understand Pollock was horrible in Seattle last year. He hit .173 and wasn't great defensively either, but that was a washed AJ Pollock. Back in the day, AJ was one of the best center fielders in the National League. In 2015, Pollock hit .315, stole 39 bags, won a Gold Glove, and finished 15th in MVP culture.

Did Dustin ever have a year like that?

Pollock was taken by Arizona at #17, 15 picks below Ackley. Over his seven years with the Snakes, Pollock racked up 18.7 bWAR and hit .281 in 2507 plate appearances. In his prime, AJ was a rare 5 tool player when healthy, able to hit for power, play center field, steal bags, and hit for average.

The Mariners could have used him back in 2014 and 2016, seasons in which Seattle barely missed the playoffs. In AJ's seven years in Arizona, they only reached the Postseason once and got swept in the 2017 NLDS by the Los Angeles Dodgers. Pollock has had his share of injuries that derailed his career (including a big one in 2016), but he was an ascending star before the health concerns piled up. The Mariners missed out on the 2014 Wild Card by two games in 2014, but with an All Star in center instead of James Jones in 2014, who knows what could have been?

Mariners #1 Choice: Mike Trout

Of course, this one pick would take the most insight from this list, but it would also easily have the highest ROI. I was a bit young when Barry was in MVP form in SF, so Mike Trout was the first guy I've seen win 3 MVPs. The Angels grabbed him with the 25th pick, so most teams in the league passed on him for another guy back in 2009. Donovan Tate, Matt Hobgood, and Tony Sanchez were all top 5 picks in the 2009 draft, and none of them made a meaningful contribution at the Major League level. One thing you have to give Jack Zduriencik credit for is taking Ackley over those guys, at least he played 600 games at the highest level.

If you start thinking about what could have been in Seattle with a 3X MVP and the best player of the generation, you might get a headache and take out a small violin. It's been a rough 20-year stretch for Mariners fans, compounded by foolish front offices quotes like the 54% line. I know Trout hasn't been able to play in meaningful playoff games in Anaheim, but I truly do believe that the Mariners would have made multiple Postseasons runs if they had the crystal ball and drafted Trout 23 slots earlier than he went.

Of course, that's not a realistic expectation. They were going to take someone who ended up in the top 10, which is why I think Wheeler was probably the most feasible pick of these three redraft picks mentioned. That said, thinking about drafting Mike Trout is the most fun, and simultaneously the most depressing.