3 Mariners predictions we already know we're wrong about
These aren't exactly the most fun articles to write. Not only do you have to admit the things you were wrong about, but you usually have to look at the things that your team is performing poorly at as well.
It's still early, so there is a lot of time for the Mariners, and anyone involved in these prediction reviews, to turn it around and get back to where they should be... or at least where we hope they will be. We aren't even to the end of April yet, but with about 1/8th of the season complete, it seemed like a good time to take an early look at how well some of the things we talked about in the early season have been tracking.
We're going to spread it out a bit. Things have sort of been rough all over the board, so it isn't tough to find some predictions that we look to be wrong on, especially the overly optimistic ones.
That being said, it's still early, and I'm hopeful that the Mariners turn it around. I'm staying positive, and believe that things are going to be just fine in Seattle. For now, let's take a look at 3 predictions that we were wrong about with the Mariners through the start of the 2023 season.
Mariners Prediction #1: Kolten Wong would be the Answer at Second Base
Man, I really wanted Kolten Wong to be good. Honestly, I still think he is going to be fine. I just can't figure out how a guy could be that good for so long, and then forget how to play baseball.
Chone Figgins, you say? Sorry, never heard of him.
Wong has been struggling mightily since joining the Mariners in the offseason trade. He's just 5-51 with 5 walks, and no extra-base hits. He has a negative OPS+ and a negative dWAR. He's played in 16 games and already is a -1.0 WAR player. That's... well, that's emabarassing.
What stinks is that the Mariners don't really have an answer for a replacement. They have called up Jose Caballero, who got his first start in game 2 against the Brewers, and got the start in the finale as well to give Wong the day off at 2B. Haggerty is on the concussion IL. Moore is making rehab starts in Everett, and Mason McCoy is a minor league vet still searching for a callup.
Can Wong figure it out? Or has he totally lost it? There are a lot of games left, but it's hard to leave a black hole like that in your lineup.
Mariners Prediction #2: The Mariners would have the best bullpen in baseball
Last year, there was some ridiculously dumb stat that went something like "The Mariners were 57-0 with a lead heading into the 8th inning" before blowing a game against the Guardians in Late August. They blew a lead in the 5th and 7th innings in game 4, which doesn't quite qualify, but it was a precursor to what was to come.
The Mariners blew a lead in game 10 not once, not twice, but three times against the Guardians. Maybe Cleveland just has our number. It seems like the bullpen hasn't been as effective... although part of that may fall on the offense's inability to score late.
It actually hasn't been terrible for the bullpen, as they have a 3.18 ERA so far, despite walking 42 hitters. That's the reason for concern here. Sure, Munoz is going to come back soon and that will 100% strengthen this team. But when you hand out that many free passes, it's impossible to be the best bullpen in baseball. Los Bomberos... we need you to step it up (even if that's a big ask).
Mariners Prediction #3: Robbie Ray would lead the AL in Strikeouts
This one was a bit of a long shot, but it was still definitely something that could've happened. Robbie Ray has struck out a lot of people in his career, sitting between 10.1 and 12.1 every year back to 2016. He'd thrown plenty of innings over the last two seasons, both around 190. Was it really that far of a stretch to think that he could lead the league in strikeouts?
He was 4th in the AL last season, behind Cole, Cease, and Ohtani. A rate of 11 per 9 over 190 innings would get him into the 230s, and all you need is a lower year from Cole.
Instead, Ray exited his first start early dealing with tightness in his arm. It was supposed to be a low-grade injury, one that would keep him out for around 4-6 weeks.. He's not ready to begin his throwing program yet, but is reportedly getting closer.
"Robbie Ray isn't quite ready to begin a throwing program after being re-evaluated yesterday, but he says the progression on his left flexor strain has been good. He'll undergo another MRI later this week."
It's pretty much impossible for Ray to lead the league in K's now. If he comes back after missing 5 weeks, he will probably make about 25 starts. He would need to strike out nearly 10 a game in order to be in contention. That would be Randy Johnson status, and Ray just doesn't have that. Unless he starts going 7 and K'ing 10 a game, it's not going to happen.
Are there any other predictions out there in Mariners land that you remember that are already wrong? Let us know!