3 Bold predictions for Mariners' in 2024 that will make you happy, and 2 that won't

4. The bullpen takes a step back in 2024

The Mariners bullpen was easily one of the top bullpens in all of baseball in 2023. As a collective group, they had a 3.48 ERA (4th in MLB), gave up the 5th fewest hits (478), the fewest earned runs (212), and walked the 4th fewest batters. The Mariners were also a top 5 bullpen in 2022, so how will they take a step back in 2024?

I am not saying the Mariners will have the worst bullpen in the Majors. I am predicting that they will not have a top 5 bullpen in 2024. Pitchers can be up and down from season to season, and it is hard to duplicate stats from year to year. Relief pitchers can be the most volatile from season to season, and sometimes even game to game. Remember the Fernando Rodney experience?

The Mariners did lose some key contributors from their top-ranked bullpen in 2023. Justin Topa, and his 2.61 ERA over 69 innings, was traded to the Minnesota Twins for Jorge Polanco. Paul Sewald may have been traded at the deadline, but he still spent half of last season closing games for the Mariners. Isaiah Campbell was also traded this offseason.

It's not just that the Mariners shipped some guys out of town, they are dealing with some key injuries in their bullpen. Matt Brash and newly acquired arm Gregory Santos will not be ready to start the season, both starting their year on the Injured List. While neither of the pitchers will miss the whole season, even missing a month or two could affect the Mariners.

While I hope that I am wrong, It is just hard for entire bullpens to stay healthy and duplicate their past success. Jerry Dipoto has been able to find diamonds in the rough before, and he may have done it again.