2024 Seattle Mariners Offseason Plan

Welcome everyone to one of the most enjoyable parts of the year for baseball fans: Hot Stove season! One of the best parts about the MLB offseason is how quickly it starts after the World Series has finished (we’re not going to talk about that…sigh). Players can be traded already and free agency will begin on November 6th.

Good news, the Seattle Mariners have the opportunity to get the stench off of a truly disappointing 2023 season, and the embarrassing sequences that followed. Bad news, or at least potentially bad news, is that the fanbase is divided to say the least on their belief in John Stanton opening the checkbook, and Jerry Dipoto being able to sign legitimate stars and valuable depth that this roster needs if it's goal is to truly win a championship.

This week, we will look at 3 potential offseason plans that could capture the hearts of not just the fans of the Seattle Mariners, but the players themselves. Each plan will be based around how Seattle's leadership may approach such a critical offseason. In our first installment, we looked at what the Mariners could look like if they were able to land Shohei Ohtani. In part two, we took a swing at trading for Juan Soto, despite what Scott Boras says.

In our final installment today, I'm giving out my personal offseason plan. I tried to be reasonable, while also trying to balance this leadership group's frustrating history, and still trying to "go for it" without destroying the finances. I personally like a lot of what Jerry Dipoto has done, and I believe in about 75% of his philosophy. I also recognize the tipping point that this franchise is facing from its fans, the media, and the players. No more half-measures or regrets, it's time to put the best team in the field.

So, without further ado, I present to you my 2024 Offseason Plan.

Step 1: Sign LHP Blake Snell (6yr/$150mil)

Blake Snell has been a big topic of discussion here at SoDo Mojo and among all Mariners fans, bloggers and podcasters. As I wrote last week, there may not be a more unique pitching free agent than Snell.

The Seattle native allegedly wants to be a Seattle Mariner, and is going to run away with the 2023 NL Cy Young award. Snell went 14-9 with a league-best 2.25 ERA. He finished 3rd in baseball with 234 K's. He gave up the 5th fewest home runs in baseball this season for qualified starting pitchers. His .181 opponents batting average and 182 ERA+ are easily the best in baseball. 

His numbers are staggering, but even his negative numbers are unique. No pitcher came even remotely close to walking as many batters as Blake Snell (99BB's, 83 was #2). What makes this even crazier is the fact that Blake Snell is allergic to going more than 6 innings. Honestly, the only argument people have against Snell taking home his second Cy Young (will be 7th player to ever win the award in both leagues). In 32 total starts, Snell only made it through the 7th inning three times. 

I get that people can have reservations about these two areas, but it also speaks to the type of pitcher that he is. His stuff is straight up unhittable, but that also means he's gonna miss the stroke zone frequently. Maybe this is something the coaching staff will want to see if they can help Snell a little bit, or they could just let him do his thing, knowing that with Luis Castillo and George Kirby behind him, the bullpen won't get taxed. 

Either way, the addition of Blake Snell puts Seattle's rotation into a league of their own. The Mariners have a history of struggling to sign superstar bats, but we saw they were able to lock in an award-winning pitcher in Robbie Ray. Seattle may never have a two-time Cy Young winner in his prime that also is from Seattle and wants to be a Mariner, in their backyard again. In my offseason plan, we don't waste this opportunity, and we build the best rotation in all of baseball. 

Step 2: Trade Bryce Miller, Gabriel Gonzalez and Perlander Berroa for Randy Arozarena and Blake Rasmussen 

With Snell completing one of the best 1-4 rotations (not including a healthy Robbie Ray), Seattle is now in a position where they can afford to trade a white hot prospect like Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo. The league is desperate for young, controllable starting pitching and this is something the Mariners have in spades. As much as I love the guy. We're going to capitalize on this market, flipping Bryce Miller, a top 100 prospect in Gonzales, and a talented bullpen piece for the "Cuban Missile"

Randy Arozarena is one of the more underappreciated stars in baseball. As a rookie during the COVID 2020 season, Arozarena became the star of the bubble playoffs, smacking 10 home runs en route to an ALCS MVP and a World Series berth. Since that epic first act, Randy has been nothing but a consistent steady star in Tampa Bay.

In 2023, Arozarena slashed .254/.364/.425 with a 120 OPS+ while he made it to Seattle for his first ever all-star game. Since Randy has broken onto the scene, you can confidently pencil him in for 140+ hits, 20+ home runs and 20+ stolen bases. While his doubles dropped precipitously (41 to 19), his walks had as equally an aggressive climb (46 to 80).

Arozarena brings a swagger and energy to the ballpark and clubhouse that I believe this team desperately needs to add more of. He may not bring the level of impact that Shohei Ohtani or Juan Soto may bring, but he's the type of player this team needs in April and in October.

Not just a throw in, I also really like the long-term addition of Puyallup, WA native and product of Mead High School in Spokane, Blake Rasmussen. Another dominant Tampa Bay reliever, Rasmussen was exceptional in his 8 appearances, going 4-2 with a 2.62 ERA and a 1.3 WAR. Dominant when healthy, Rasmussen unfortunately missed the majority of 2023 due to needing UCL surgery, likely putting him out until the middle of 2024. Under contract through 2027, I like the long-term play here as Rasmussen in September and October could be a massive weapon out of the pen.

Step 4: Sign Whit Merrifield (1yr/$9mil)

With the additions of what I believe are two premier offensive players for Seattle, we look to adding depth and a little bit of protection to the roster. Once a coveted target for Jerry Dipoto in 2021, he gets his man, bringing in Whit Merrifield on a one year deal.

The soon to be 35 year old is no longer the type of player that Kansas City was foolishly asking Julio Rodriguez for back at the 2021 trade deadline, but I believe he can bring more than just a veteran presence into the clubhouse. The 3-time all-star had a tremendous start to his 2023 season, hitting .286/.342/.392 with 17 doubles and 19 stolen bases after 82 games. Unfortunately for Merrifield, a toe injury and groin issue ruined his second half and made him a bench player in the postseason. 

On a one year deal, Seattle could maximize Merrifield’s strengths, turning him into a super utility player. Even at his age, Merrifield still has elite speed and an excellent eye for the strike zone, striking out only 17.1% of the time. His ability to play the corner outfield positions, as well as second (can also be an emergency 1st baseman) provide Seattle with arguably the best contact bench bat they've had in a long time. Dipoto has long been fascinated with finding the next Ben Zobrist (as is everyone else), and that's not who Whit necessarily is, but that doesn't mean he can't be a discount version for one year.

Another benefit of having Merrifield around is the protection the lineup has in case Jarred Kelenic struggles in 2024. If Kelenic were to fail, the odds of the Mariners making the playoffs take a huge hit. With this deal, Seattle could get by for a while and potentially make a move at the deadline.

Review 

With these projected additions, here's how the roster looks heading into Opening Day.

Projected Rotation and Lineup 

Rotation

1: Blake Snell 

2: Luis Castillo 

3: George Kirby 

4: Logan Gilbert 

5: Bryan Woo 

Returning

Robbie Ray (midsummer)

Marco Gonzalez (midsummer)

Lineup

1 JP Crawford SS

2 Randy Arozarena LF

3 Julio Rodriguez CF

4 Cal Raleigh C

5 Jorge Soler DH 

6 Kelenic RF

7 Geno Suarez 3B

8 Ty France 1B

9 Josh Rojas 2B

Bench

Blake Hunt

Dylan Moore

Whit Merrifield 

Dom Canzone 

As much as I'd love to have Tom Murphy back in this roster, I wonder if he's more interested in a starting role going forward. With that said, we'll slot newly acquired Blake Hunt into that role.

Overall, I think this is a completely realistic championship roster. The free agent additions of Blake Snell, Jorge Soler and Whit Merrifield along with the trade acquisition of Randy Arozarena amounts to a projected $58 million in added payroll. When you take into account the $14-$20 million shaved off of the payroll with Hernandez no longer in the picture, you're looking at what financially amounts to a low-ball offer in the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes.

I'd love to have Ohtani wearing the teal as much as the next person, but we have to ask ourselves what could Seattle do if they spread that $ and brought in multiple good players.

At the end of the day, we've added a two-time Cy Young ace, three 2023 all-stars, two of which you can make a strong case are entering their prime. The Mariners collapsed in September, just missing the playoffs. Not in 2024, not with this team. This is a strong roster that doesn't break the bank, and will get the Mariners closer to a World Series than ever before.

Go M’s