2024 Mariners Offseason Plan: The Ohtani Hail Mary

Welcome everyone to one of the most enjoyable parts of the year for baseball fans: Hot Stove season! One of the best parts about the MLB offseason is how quickly it starts after the World Series has finished (we’re not going to talk about that…sigh). Players can be traded already and free agency will begin on November 6th.

Good news, the Seattle Mariners have the opportunity to get the stench off of a truly disappointing 2023 season, and the embarrassing sequences that followed. Bad news, or at least potentially bad news, is that the fanbase is divided to say the least on their belief in John Stanton opening the checkbook, and Jerry Dipoto being able to sign legitimate stars and valuable depth that this roster needs if it's goal is to truly win a championship.

This week, we will look at 3 potential offseason plans that could capture the hearts of not just the fans of the Seattle Mariners, but the players themselves. Each plan will be based around how Seattle's leadership may approach such a critical offseason.

To kick off today's offseason plan, we're going to cover how the Seattle Mariners could reel in the biggest fish since Barry Bonds was a free agent. The great Shohei Ohtani is on the market, and it's unclear how much of a shot, or how aggressive Seattle wants to be in this historic chase. In today's plan, we're going to realistically build a team around Ohtani, reward the fanbase, and enter a new era of Mariners baseball.

Step 1: Trade for Lars Nootbaar

Proposed deal: Seattle receives Lars Nootbaar, Cardinals receive Bryce Miller 

If you want to catch a big fish, you're gonna need some nice bait…hello Lars Nootbar. If you're going to trade away a valuable piece like Miller from an area of great strength, then you need to make sure you're getting better on offense, and I think Nootbaar can be the upgrade Seattle needs. While some mid tier prospects may be involved in this deal, the meat of the deal is Miller for Nootbaar.

While he has one of the coolest names in baseball, you may not be familiar with Nootbar's game. Lars is a 26 years old versatile outfielder that in his first three seasons has been a good to very good bat.

In 2023, Nootbaar posted a 3.3 WAR, slashing .261/.367/.418, good for a 115 OPS+. When you talk about why the 2023 Seattle Mariners failed, it doesn't take long to point to insane strikeout numbers by Mariners hitters, specifically Teoscar Hernandez. We're going to let him walk, with no qualifying offer, and look to replace him with about the most opposite player possible.

Nootbaar is a plus defender in the corners, and can hold up for an extended period of time in center field. While he may not have the arm that Teo is gifted with, Nootbaar himself has an above average arm. As a hitter. Nootbaar will likely never threaten more than 20 home runs a season, but he's an ideal "Control the Zone" addition. Nootbaar had a 19.6% K rate in 2023, which is better than average. When you compare it to Teo's 31.1% K rate, we're talking about a massive difference in philosophy. Add in Nootbaar posting a 14.3% walk rate in 2023 (95% percentile in baseball), and the Mariners could be making a massive OBP boost to their lineup, sacrificing just a little bit of power on the surface.

While Nootbaar would be a strong addition to the Mariners, there's more value to this deal. There's a friendship between Nootbaar and Shohei Ohtani. Nootbaar joined Team Japan in this spring's World Baseball Classic, and became both an instant star in Japan and friends with Ohtani. 

When talking about his time with Ohtani and Japan, Nootbaar said this summer, “Going over there and having him accept me, obviously his word means a lot so the fact that he embraced me, I think, helped me and I think helped help the team, honestly”

While one friend isn't going to swing Ohtani's decision, it can't hurt to create an environment where Ohtani feels comfortable. His comfort visiting Seattle, and his friendships with Ichiro Suzuki and Lars Nootbaar can only help in the recruiting process.

Step 2: Sign OF Adam Duvall (1yr/$7mil)

If Seattle is going to run an outfield with Jarred Kelenic and Lars Nootbaar, I'd like to look for a veteran right handed bat that could provide a little pop off the bench, while being a safety hedge in case Kelenic struggles. Where AJ Pollock looked shot in 2023, I believe Adam Duvall will succeed.

Duvall, a former all-star and World Series hero for the Atlanta Braves in 2021, had an incredible start last year for the Boston Red Sox, before a wrist injury impaired him for the rest of the season. Nethertheless, Duvall still put up 1.5 WAR season and a 119 OPS+. He has experience playing in all three outfield spots, as well as 1st base earlier in his career. With an 85th percentile in barrel percentage, I'd love to see him not just as a super utility player, but a guy that will have no problem pushing the likes of Kelenic and Ty France for playing time.

Step 3: Resign C Tom Murphy (1yr/$6mil)

If Tom Murphy could just stay healthy, he could be looking at a massive payday in 2025. In the past two seasons, Murphy has played in only 61 games. In those 61 games, Murphy has a .292 average 14 doubles and 9 home runs with an OPS+ around 150. Those numbers put even J.T. Realmuto to shame.

Unfortunately, Tom has shown he can't stay healthy, even as the backup catcher/lefty mashing bench slugger. There's a chance a team will take a shot on him to be a more stable piece of their backstop situation, but if not, I want to keep giving Murphy chances to help this team.

Step 4: Sign SP Jack Flaherty (1yr/$10mil)

In 2019, Jack Flaherty was 23, had just finished a top 5 voting Cy Young season, and carried the St. Louis Cardinals to the NLCS. He was arguably the best rising arm in baseball. Since then, 3 straight seasons with injuries have destroyed his trajectory towards greatness.

Finally healthy in 2023, Flaherty looked more like a #4 or #5 starter than the former ace he was. In 29 starts, Flaherty posted a 4.99 ERA and a 98 ERA+ in St. Louis before a deadline trade to Baltimore went catastrophic and tanked his season. So, if things have been so dark since 2019, why would I want Seattle to sign him?

That answer is three-fold for me. First, I believe he is healthy now. As we've seen from almost every pitcher coming off of shoulder injuries, it takes time to heal and rebuild the strength and ability that was once there. Second, he'd be leaving St. Louis. No disrespect to the Cardinals or anyone on their medical team, but sometimes you just have to get away from a place with so many negative experiences. Getting traded to Baltimore, and being forced to pitch playoff caliber games in that tiny ballpark was a recipe for disaster. And finally, Flaherty can escape back to the West Coast where he's from, and be reborn in the Seattle Mariners pitching philosophy. 

If anyone can fix Flaherty, I believe it's the Seattle Mariners. With the trading away of Bryce Miller, the Mariners will need a starter to come in and eat innings until Robbie Ray or Marco Gonzalez is healthy. It's a perfect marriage for both sides, as Flaherty will look to rebuild his value. 

Step 5: Sign the Unicorn (12yr/$564mil/$47AAV)

The Pitch

With the stage set, and the pieces in place, we're ready to not just have a seat at the table with Shohei Ohtani, but we're prepared to not leave without him. In this scenario where we get a meeting, I'm pulling out all the stops. We're bringing Ichiro, Nootbaar, Julio Rodriguez, Luis Castillo, Jeff Bezos and Eddie Vedder! We'll even have John Stanton pull the Pat Riley move and drop a bag full of championship rings on the table. Shohei will ask, "Where are the rings?" And Stanton will reply, "Exactly! Please come to Seattle!"

In all seriousness, this is going to be about comfortability, environment, winning potential, and cash. We know that Seattle is a place where Ohtani feels comfortable, so that's already a nice head start. The environment and culture around the Mariners? That's a pretty divisive question depending on who you ask. Getting out in front of free agency and bringing in a guy like Nootbaar to help create a positive culture, one that Ohtani has experienced, could be helpful. I would expect this to be one of the bigger concerns for Ohtani. 

When it comes to winning potential, despite being in the AL West, you make a strong argument that the Mariners have one of the 5-6 brightest futures in baseball. A young, talented stable of pitchers that allow Ohtani to come back and pitch on his time, with a 6 man rotation becoming the norm (common in Japan). They have a young budding star in Julio Rodriguez and young talented top tier players at their positions in JP Crawford and Cal Raleigh. This would unquestionably be the best team Ohtani has ever been on.