2024 Mariners Offseason Plan: Swing for Juan Soto

Welcome everyone to one of the most enjoyable parts of the year for baseball fans: Hot Stove season! One of the best parts about the MLB offseason is how quickly it starts after the World Series has finished (we’re not going to talk about that…sigh). Players can be traded already and free agency will begin on November 6th.

The good news, the Seattle Mariners have the opportunity to get the stench off of a truly disappointing 2023 season, and the embarrassing sequences that followed. The Bad news, or at least potentially bad news, is that the fanbase is divided, to say the least, on their belief in John Stanton opening the checkbook, and Jerry Dipoto being able to sign legitimate stars and valuable depth that this roster needs if it's goal is to truly win a championship.

This week, we will look at 3 potential offseason plans that could capture the hearts of not just the fans of the Seattle Mariners, but the players themselves. Each plan will be based on how Seattle's leadership may approach such a critical offseason. In our first installment, we looked at what the Mariners could look like if they were able to land Shohei Ohtani. Today, we’re going to take a look at Seattle making one of the biggest trades in the franchise’s history…getting Juan Soto. What would it cost, how much does it open the 2024 window, and does it shrink the long-term window if he doesn’t resign?

2024 Mariners Offseason Plan Part II: Trading for Juan Soto

Step 1: Seattle trades RHP Bryce Miller, LF Jarred Kelenic and OF Gabriel Gonzalez

The Mariners Justification for the Deal

To kick off the offseason, I want to strike quickly. The vibes around the franchise post-September collapse and the subsequent embarrassing interviews have put a dark cloud around the franchise. Faith from not just the fans and media, but the players as well, must be rekindled as soon as possible, and we believe Juan Soto would do that and then some. 

Before we dive into this trade, I want to look back at a similar story to the Juan Soto saga, but on the hardwood. In the summer of 2018, the Toronto Raptors were at a crossroads. For five straight years, they had made the playoffs, and for five straight years, they had disappointed. They had two really good players in Kyle Lowry and Demar Derozan that were good enough to get Toronto to the postseason but just didn’t have enough to get over the hump. Being in the Great North, it would be nearly impossible to sign a marquee free agent. They appeared stuck in the good not great purgatory of the NBA until a rare opportunity presented itself in the form of Kawhi Leonard.

Leonard, arguably one of the top 50 greatest players in NBA history, was a soon-to-be free agent and wanted out of San Antonio with the hopes of getting to his hometown, Los Angeles. Everyone knew Kawhi was just a one-year rental, with very little chance of convincing him to re-sign. It was assumed one of the California teams would pounce. Instead, the Raptors shocked the world, sending their beloved Demar Derozan and picks/young players to acquire a guy who didn’t want to be in Toronto. What happened next was the greatest season in Toronto Raptors history. They won epic playoff series after epic playoff series en route to a stunning NBA championship. 

There was a celebration, a trophy, a parade, and memories to last a lifetime. Kawhi ended up leaving to go to Los Angeles, but to this day you won’t find a single fan or employee of the Raptors that would do it any differently. The Raptors chose to get uncomfortable. They chose to say goodbye to a loved one, to what they had always known for a shot at greatness. 

Just like Kawhi Leonard was/is an all-time player, Juan Soto is an all-time player in a very similar situation. In the final year of his deal, Soto is widely expected to sign next season with a team on the East Coast so he can be closer to his family. The Mariners are a franchise that is caught in the middle of baseball purgatory, never bad enough or good enough to attain a true star that could get them over the top. The storylines between Seattle and Toronto are eerily similar.

The price of a potential star pitcher like Bryce Miller, the untapped potential of Jarred Kelenic, and a top-100 prospect in Gabi Gonzalez is steep. For the Mariners to truly step out of the shadows of 40+ years of disappointment and ineptitude, Soto is the type of player to help do that, even if it's just one year. We believe in the roster, and the farm system, that this won't be a one-year wonder, but a year to build off of, the first of many realistic championship runs.

Mariners Step 2: Sign James Paxton (1yr/$8mil)

Yes, I know what you're thinking. Love the guy, but not again! Hear me out though, as I believe this season and the team is best situated to help Paxton be healthy and successful.

From 2016 to 2019, Paxton was one of the more underrated pitchers in all of baseball, finding tremendous success in Seattle before being traded to the Bronx and nearly helping the Yankees get to the World Series. Like many talented pitchers, the 2020 season and subsequent years have been destroyed by injuries and inconsistency. Even his 2021 return to Seattle was ruined by another season-ending injury.

Fast forward to 2023, and James Paxton looked primed to win Comeback Player of the Year while in Boston. In the first half of the season, he led the Red Sox with a 5-1 record and a 2.73 ERA. With a different injury than in the past (knee issues) Paxton collapsed towards the end of the season, going 2-4 with a 6.98 ERA in his final 9 starts.

I like the idea of bringing the 35-year-old Canadian back home to Seattle because I think it is mutually beneficial for both parties. With Bryce Miller off to San Diego, Seattle has a solid 1-4 rotation with Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, and Bryan Woo. The M's also have Robbie Ray and Marco Gonzalez rejoining the squad in the first few months of the year. By signing Paxton, Seattle gets one of the more experienced and talented #5 starters in the game, and just needs him to stay healthy for the first half of the year. If he can do that, then Seattle could be in a position to run a 6 man rotation going forward, or even move Paxton to the bullpen.

Yes, there's some risk with all three of Ray, Paxton, and Marco (even Woo to an extent), but you'd be loading up enough arms in the stockpile that you could be set and protected after May.

The fans would love it, there's a relationship there. Let's bring the Big Maple home.

Mariners Step 3: Sign Adam Duvall (1yr/$7mil)

Duvall, a former all-star and World Series hero for the Atlanta Braves in 2021, had an incredible start last year for the Boston Red Sox, before a wrist injury impaired him for the rest of the season. Nevertheless, Duvall still put up a 1.5 WAR season and a 119 OPS+. He has experience playing in all three outfield spots, as well as 1st base earlier in his career. With an 85th percentile in barrel percentage, the Mariners would be adding some serious power to their lineup with Duvall and Soto.

I'll be honest, Soto is not a very good defender, although some of his RF numbers in 2022 weren't horrific, while Duvall had a solid season in his 26 games defensively in right field out in Fenway Park. While Soto is probably best suited to be a DH soon, a shared rotation of RF and DH by Soto and Duvall could make for a massive jump in production from two spots that disappointed in 2023.

Mariners Step 4: Sign OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr (4yr/$54mil)

In what would be the largest offensive free agent addition of the Jerry Dipoto era, the Seattle Mariners bring in the spectacularly solid Gurriel, who is coming off playing a key role in the Arizona Diamondbacks Cinderella run to the World Series.

Just turned 30, Gurriel just produced a 3 WAR season with a career-best 24 home runs and a career OPS+ of 115. Gurriel doesn't necessarily jump off the page with anything that he does great, but he's just pretty good at everything. Gurriel has some pop as we mentioned, doing it in a pitcher-friendly Chase Field. He doesn't walk a ton, but he has some of the very best strikeout and whiff rates in the league while ranking in the 77th percentile in hard-hit rate. When he's not being a solid hitter in your lineup, he's one of the most underrated left fielders in the game, with above-average range and a blue-chip arm that will record plenty of assists in 2024.

Let's review this Mariners Juan Soto Plan 

With these projected additions, here's how the roster looks heading into Opening Day.

Projected Rotation and Lineup 

Rotation

1: Luis Castillo
2: George Kirby
3: Logan Gilbert
4: Bryan Woo
5: James Paxton

Returning

Robbie Ray (midsummer)
Marco Gonzalez (midsummer)

Lineup

1: JP Crawford SS
2: Julio Rodriguez CF
3: Juan Soto RF
4: Adam Duvall DH
5: Lourdes Gurriel Jr LF
6: Cal Raleigh C
7: Geno Suarez 3B
8: Ty France 1B
9: Josh Rojas 2B

Bench

Blake Hunt
Dylan Moore
Ryan Bliss
Dom Canzone

Two of my biggest gripes over the past few years were the lack of cornerstone, franchise players, and the lack of that old dog championship veteran presence to lead the clubhouse while still having some left in the tank. This offseason plan answers both of those concerns.

By adding Juan Soto and Lourdes Gurriel, the Mariners would be adding a top 5 hitter in the game as well as a guy in Gurriel who may not be a blue chip talent but is someone who absolutely raises the floor of this team.

You want veteran, postseason leadership? This roster has it. Paxton has gone the distance with Astros in past playoff performances, while Soto, Duvall, and Gurriel have all had major postseason moments and World Series experience in the past 5 seasons. These are the types of guys you want around Julio Rodriguez, George Kirby, Cal Raleigh.

When you add up the free agent signings and Soto's projected arbitration salary ($33 mil) you're looking at just over $61 million in AAV for 2023, with $48 million coming off the books after the 2024 season. When you take into account Seattle not paying Teoscar Hernandez's projected salary and you consider what Shohei Ohtani will likely command, this one-year push without destroying the future should not financially burden the Mariners (looking at you John Stanton).

Let's make the greatest trade in Mariners history, and go win some banners.

Go M's.