2 reasons the Mariners will make the playoffs and 2 reasons they won't

There are only 11 games left in the season for the Mariners. Well, we hope that there are only 11 games left in the regular season, and that they are somehow able to make things work to get into the playoffs. While it looks slim, things look worse after the series-opening loss to the Yankees. Entering Wednesday, the Mariners are 5 games out of the AL West and 3 games out of the Wild Card.

With where they are at now, it's time to look at how the Mariners could still get into the playoffs. However, we need to look at the flipside and see what could keep them out of the playoffs. If you are feeling skeptical about it, you have every right to. The Mariners have just a % chance of making the playoffs per Fangraphs, so things aren't looking great. However, there are some key factors the Mariners have in their favor that they could use to flip the script and erase the memories of the July + August collapse.

Can they make the playoffs? Will they miss out? Let's get into it by looking at 2 reasons that the Mariners could make the playoffs as well as the 2 main reasons that they are going to miss out on the playoffs in 2024.

Reason #1 Mariners make playoffs: The pitching staff

If Castillo was healthy, I think the Mariners would have an even better shot. For some reason, people talk down about La Piedra despite his 3.64 ERA and consistency in going deep into games. (Well, deep by modern-day standards). With him out, there is a lot more pressure on Emerson Hancock.

I think this might actually help the Mariners. There is a part of me that wonders if the team fell into a rut because they knew the pitching staff was going to dominate. Now, they know (especially on the road), that they need to go out there and score 4+ runs. It seems like it has helped as of late, as the offense has been doing better.

In turn, it could help the staff as well. They don't have to worry about a single mistake costing the team the game, which we saw countless times throughout the first... well, 120 games of the season.

Kirby-Gilbert-Miller-Woo. We've seen what they can do when they are on top of their games. With 2-3 starts from each of them remaining (Woo and Miller each have 3 left), they could definitely pitch their way into contention. The offense just needs to do their part.

Reason #1 Mariners miss playoffs: The Twins & Tigers tiebreaker

On the flip side, and the much more likely side, we have the reasons that the Mariners wouldn't be able to make the playoffs. I mentioned tiebreakers earlier, and it's a good thing that the Mariners have the one against Houston, because they don't have it over the team they are closer to in the Minnesota Twins.

Seattle went 2-5 against them this year, and although you could do this with plenty of series throughout the year, there is an argument that a flipped record there would see these teams in flipped positions as well.

It's not just the Twins, either. Remember how we felt a bit excited that the Mariners were going to play six of nine against the Tigers, a team that was 53-60 at the time the Mariners went to play them? Well, the Mariners went 1-5 against them. Now, the Tigers sit 1.5 games ahead of the Mariners in the Wild Card as they both chase the Twins, and they don't have the tiebreaker with either team. So when you look at the standings, remember that the Mariners don't just have to catch those teams, they have to pass them as well.

Reason #2 Mariners miss the playoffs: It's too little, too late

This is the biggest and most obvious one, so I decided to save it for last. I'll say it again because it needs to be said, but the Mariners had a 10-game lead in the AL West on June 18th. The worst it got after that was a 6-7 game deficit for them behind the Astros. It's not even that the Astros were playing incredible baseball, but that the Mariners were actually one of the worst teams in baseball for a 2-month stretch, having the 4th worst record in baseball from June 18th into the back half of August.

Simply put, a hot stretch to finish the season might not be enough, depending on how the Twins and the Astros do. The Mariners are no longer in control of their own destiny, even though that Astros series makes it close. Shoot, if things fall right by the time the Mariners get there, they actually could be in charge of their own destiny, but things have to fall the right way.

That being said, it really does look like it is going to be too little too late for the Mariners to make the playoffs. Giving up 16 games in two months really hurts, but hey, who would've thought that having an offense that couldn't score runs would come back to bite you.