2 reasons the Mariners will make the playoffs and 2 reasons they won't

There are only 11 games left in the season for the Mariners. Well, we hope that there are only 11 games left in the regular season, and that they are somehow able to make things work to get into the playoffs. While it looks slim, things look worse after the series-opening loss to the Yankees. Entering Wednesday, the Mariners are 5 games out of the AL West and 3 games out of the Wild Card.

With where they are at now, it's time to look at how the Mariners could still get into the playoffs. However, we need to look at the flipside and see what could keep them out of the playoffs. If you are feeling skeptical about it, you have every right to. The Mariners have just a % chance of making the playoffs per Fangraphs, so things aren't looking great. However, there are some key factors the Mariners have in their favor that they could use to flip the script and erase the memories of the July + August collapse.

Can they make the playoffs? Will they miss out? Let's get into it by looking at 2 reasons that the Mariners could make the playoffs as well as the 2 main reasons that they are going to miss out on the playoffs in 2024.

Reason #2 Mariners make playoffs: The Astros series

This one is dependent on the rest of the Yankees series and the upcoming Rangers series. If the Mariners can take care of business, and it's a big if, then you pair that with the Astros struggling against the Padres and Angels, the series could hold an immense amount of weight.

This series would be the penultimate one of the season, with the Mariners wrapping up in Seattle against the Athletics and the Astros finishing up in Cleveland against the Guardians. We are already looking at the teams mentioned as ones we are reluctantly rooting for, but the Mariners have to take care of business first.

Yankees. Rangers. If the Mariners can get through that stretch and end up within 3 games of the Astros, all of a sudden they control their season. The Mariners are currently up on Houston in the season series at 6-4, so they would hold the tiebreaker if it comes to teams with the same record. While every game is important, those three in Houston loom incredibly large. Even more interesting? The final game of the series would see the Astros through Yusei Kikuchi, who is 5-0 with a 3.14 ERA since joining the Astros, and the team hasn't lost a single start by him.

Reason #1 Mariners miss playoffs: The Twins & Tigers tiebreaker

On the flip side, and the much more likely side, we have the reasons that the Mariners wouldn't be able to make the playoffs. I mentioned tiebreakers earlier, and it's a good thing that the Mariners have the one against Houston, because they don't have it over the team they are closer to in the Minnesota Twins.

Seattle went 2-5 against them this year, and although you could do this with plenty of series throughout the year, there is an argument that a flipped record there would see these teams in flipped positions as well.

It's not just the Twins, either. Remember how we felt a bit excited that the Mariners were going to play six of nine against the Tigers, a team that was 53-60 at the time the Mariners went to play them? Well, the Mariners went 1-5 against them. Now, the Tigers sit 1.5 games ahead of the Mariners in the Wild Card as they both chase the Twins, and they don't have the tiebreaker with either team. So when you look at the standings, remember that the Mariners don't just have to catch those teams, they have to pass them as well.

Reason #2 Mariners miss the playoffs: It's too little, too late

This is the biggest and most obvious one, so I decided to save it for last. I'll say it again because it needs to be said, but the Mariners had a 10-game lead in the AL West on June 18th. The worst it got after that was a 6-7 game deficit for them behind the Astros. It's not even that the Astros were playing incredible baseball, but that the Mariners were actually one of the worst teams in baseball for a 2-month stretch, having the 4th worst record in baseball from June 18th into the back half of August.

Simply put, a hot stretch to finish the season might not be enough, depending on how the Twins and the Astros do. The Mariners are no longer in control of their own destiny, even though that Astros series makes it close. Shoot, if things fall right by the time the Mariners get there, they actually could be in charge of their own destiny, but things have to fall the right way.

That being said, it really does look like it is going to be too little too late for the Mariners to make the playoffs. Giving up 16 games in two months really hurts, but hey, who would've thought that having an offense that couldn't score runs would come back to bite you.