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2 Mariners who won't be back despite surviving the Winter Meetings, 1 who is guaranteed to return
With the conclusion of the Winter Meetings, we take a look at who is still not safe and who is guaranteed to be on the 2024 roster.
The 2023 MLB Winter Meetings concluded this last week, and it was a pretty disappointing few days for Mariners fans. Many expected the addition of a big bat or 2, or possibly a trade to net them an impact bat like Randy Arozarena. We did get to see the Marines make a big trade, but it came at the detriment of the major league roster, where the Mariners sent Jarred Kelenic to the Braves in nothing more than a salary dump. We didn't even get to talk about a player they drafted in the Rule 5 draft, well, because they didn't take anyone.
The Mariners will most certainly make a few additions over the next few weeks, hopefully sooner rather than later. With quite a few holes, I am losing confidence that they will be able to fill all of these holes with solid talent before the season begins, something this team cannot afford to do yet again. I expected a few players Mariner's career to conclude at the Winter Meeting, but now that it is over, let's take a look at a couple of players I don't think will be back despite surviving the Winter Meetings, as well as 1 player I am very confident will have a roster spot heading into 2024.
Trade for reliever or a #5 starting pitcher: Dylan Moore
Dylan Moore has been a solid utility player for the Mariners over the last 5 years, but I think his time on this roster has come to an end. He helped the Mariners quite a bit through 2020 and 2022 putting up a combined 4.7 fWAR over that time, proving that he can be a really valuable player, but I just don't think he fits the Mariners process going forward.
Dylan Moore has a career 30.5% strikeout rate and that jumped up to almost 34% in 2023, something that Dipoto has made it a point to get rid of. He is a career .208 hitter, again something Dipoto stated that they wanted to improve upon, making contact. His versatility provides value, but with Caballero being able to cover most infield spots and do a better defensive job, Dylan Moore's versatility doesn't factor in as much in the outfield because his offensive ability doesn't profile well out there. My final point is that Dylan Moore is doing over $6 million over the next 2 years, and to most franchises, that isn't a lot, but we have seen this team shed salary like crazy, and I think they can better allocate that money.
Ultimately, I think Dylan Moore is a valuable piece to a team. I think he gets traded and maybe he can net you a #5 starter or a solid bullpen arm. We have talked all offseason about dealing from the depth of the starting pitching to address the offense, but how about trading from the depth of utility infielders to help address the bullpen that needs another arm or two. I think it is very likely we see Dylan Moore in a different jersey come 2024.
Trade for a rental bat: Justin Topa
Yeah, I know that I just said the Mariners could use Dylan Moore to address the bullpen, which is thin. But if the Mariners have been really good at one thing over the last few years, it has been developing quality bullpen arms, and they haven't been shy about trading from their bullpen and relying on that talent. I think we could see Justin Topa follow the same fate of recent successes Paul Sewald and Erik Swanson. Justin Topa was a solid reliever in 2023, and the Mariners could capitalize on that.
I think a similar trade to the Erik Swanson trade is one we could see happen, if the Mariners can afford it financially, yeah, I know, it's a big if. Swanson was worth 1.7 fWAR the year before the Mariners traded him and Topa was worth 1.1 fWAR. Swanson and a young left-handed pitcher, Adam Macko, netted the Mariners Teoscar Hernandez, who was coming off a 2.5-win season and was a 1-year rental bat. Maybe Topa and a top 10 prospect could get you Anthony Santander or Max Kepler. More realistically, you could trade Topa with a prospect to the Giants for someone like JD Davis or Mike Yastrzemski.
Guaranteed to be the utility infielder: Jose Caballero
Jose Caballero got a lot of hate last year and we talked about how he upset the Astros and Gerrit Cole. He was forced into a lot of at-bats that he probably shouldn't have with how bad the 2nd base and DH positions were last year, but he held his own. I think we see him in a more traditional utility infielder role this year. Caballero is the utility infielder I am most confident will be on the opening day roster come 2024. Caballero is in his first year of pre-arb and will be cheap for quite a few years, something we can't say for Dylan Moore.
Caballero was worth 2.2 fWAR in 2023 and put up a 96 wRC+, which is below league average, but there are some things to build on. Caballero will hit for almost zero power, and that is fine, what he does do well though, is control the zone. He had a walk rate of 10% and a strikeout rate of 23.6% in 2023, while also stealing 26 bases. But those numbers could get even better, throughout the minors he regularly put up walk rates in the mid-teens and strikeout rates below 20%. I am not sure if we should see Caballero get almost 300 plate appearances again, but I could see him in the 220-250 plate appearances and slash .245/.355/.360 while providing a lot of really good defensive value and stealing 20 bases or so.
Jose Caballero has established residency in Texas.
— Jake García (@Jake_M_Garcia) August 20, 2023
Astros letting him live rent free. pic.twitter.com/kMF5FNXLOK
Plus, Caballero is just such a pesky player. He plays hard, smart, he does the dirty work, and he gets under the skin of the other team. Remember when the Astros hit him in August, that was the 2nd time the benches cleared with Caballero in the middle of it. I don't know about you, but I love to see a player like that, doing what he can to help his team and get under their skin.