Perfect Mariners leadoff hitter could be available in trade, but concerns remain

It's well-known at this point that the Seattle Mariners are in the market for better bats. In today's baseball culture of advanced analytics, that usually means more power, as the perceived value of batting average has seemed to decrease with each passing year.

However, Seattle could actually use someone with an old-school hitting style. In 2024, the Mariners were 29th in MLB in batting average (.224) and had the most strikeouts (1,625), so the most recent Padres trade rumors could help them hone in on their next target.

Dylan Cease has seemed to receive the most inbound interest, but it has been reported that Luis Arráez is also being shopped around by the front office as part of a broader effort to reduce payroll. He's no stranger to being traded, either — he has spent the past three seasons with three different teams: the Twins, Marlins and Padres. He has also won three consecutive batting titles, compiling a batting average of .328 over 1,892 plate appearances. He's one of the best at making excellent swing decisions, leading MLB in whiff percentage and strikeout rate over the same span. In 2024 alone, he had a 6.9% whiff rate and a 4.3% strikeout rate.

Despite his strengths, his overall player profile has made him a hot topic in sabermetric circles. His ability to put the ball in play comes at the cost of a bottom decile walk rate (3.6%) and power. His average exit velocity was just 86.3 mph and his hard-hit rate of 23.7% was in the lowest percentile of qualified hitters. He's also slow and is a defensive liability, limiting him to being a designated hitter or first baseman. This very specialized skillset makes him helpful to only some teams and the Padres may not be one of them. With one more year before becoming a free agent in 2026, San Diego reportedly hasn't discussed an extension yet.

An important consideration for the Mariners' front office is the price that Arráez might fetch in arbitration. Following a great 2023, which saw him hit for the cycle and post a 128 OPS+, he earned $10.6 million. 2024 was a down year with a 106 OPS+ and just 1.0 rWAR, so he could be even cheaper. Another key factor is his positional limitations. Since Mitch Garver is already the team's designated hitter, Arráez would have to take over at first base, occupying the spot of a potentially more powerful slugger.

Even if Seattle chooses to pass on a trade with the Padres, they do seem to be interested in players with better bat-to-ball skills than what is possessed by the current roster. Arráez wouldn't solve all of the problems with Seattle's offense, but don't rule him out as the team's potential leadoff hitter of the future.