New AL West projections will make Mariners fans stress over offseason direction

We're still a long way off from finding out how good the 2026 Seattle Mariners actually are. They haven't played one game yet, much less 162.

Yet this is the time of year when projection systems start spitting out takes. And if you want the good news, Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projections dropped and they have the Mariners winning the AL West for the second time in as many years in 2026.

This tracks with what Szymborski wrote on the Mariners in December, when ZiPS saw the potential for them to be one of the elite teams in the American League. The only jarring part then was that it felt weird to process such a bullish projection as being sort of obvious, what with Seattle coming off a year in which it was the AL's No. 2 seed for the playoffs.

However, you can also look at the specifics of ZiPS' current projection for the AL West standings and not like what you see:

1. Seattle Mariners: 88-74
2. Houston Astros: 87-75, 1 GB
3. Texas Rangers: 80-82, 8 GB
4. Athletics: 74-88, 14 GB
5. Los Angeles Angels: 68-94, 20 GB

The Mariners being in first place is nice, but 88 wins and a one-game edge over the Astros would each mark a step down from last season. And 88 wins out of 162 games is a winning percentage of… oh hell, 54 percent.

ZiPS' AL West projections see more of the same for Mariners after a quiet winter

OK, look. Projection systems are not gospel. They are a spirited attempt to predict baseball, but the sport itself is famously unpredictable. In any given season, there are hundreds, maybe even thousands, of things that make you go "whoa, didn't see that coming."

Even so, the last thing anyone wants to feel when looking at a projection is that creeping suspicion that it's getting at some kind of truth. In this case, the truth may be that the 2026 Mariners won't be substantially better than the 2025 Mariners.

The Mariners began their offseason with a pretty much explicit goal of running it back with the same roster as 2025, and they moved fast to make good on that by signing Josh Naylor. But then the plan was thrown into disarray when Jorge Polanco bolted for the New York Mets, and the Mariners have responded by sticking to improving on the margins.

The one big domino that could still fall is a trade for Brendan Donovan, or perhaps a third reunion with Eugenio Suárez. Increasingly, though, the vibes coming from the organization suggest that the roster is what it is. Of note, that means Cole Young at second base and Ben Williamson or Colt Emerson at third base.

It's an approach you can talk yourself into. Those guys have legitimate upside, and it's important not to lose sight of the things the Mariners do have going for them. Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodríguez, Randy Arozarena and Naylor can carry the offense, and both the rotation and the bullpen have elite potential. There simply is no scenario in which the 2026 Mariners are bad.

But if it does prove to be true that the team's margin for error has gotten smaller, that's how things could nonetheless go bad. You're talking a finer line between AL West champs and a mere wild-card team. And as the Mariners know from 2023 and 2024, there's also a fine line between earning a wild card berth and missing out on October entirely.

None of this should be mistaken for license to panic. But at least until the Mariners finish their offseason with a flourish, it's perfectly rational to be stressing a little.