MLB Pipeline's new top 100 brings a good year for Mariners prospects down a notch

Whatever else can be said about Jerry Dipoto's stewardship of the Seattle Mariners, the guy knows how to maintain a strong farm system. It might have even been the best aspect of an otherwise dismal 2026 season, even despite weaker-than-you-want finishes by two key prospects.

On the plus side, shortstop Jonny Farmelo and Felnin Celesten stayed healthy enough to show what they can do this year. Both were specifically so excellent for High-A Everett that they earned promotions to Double-A Arkansas on the same day. Farmelo even secured the MVP for the Northwest League for what he did with Everett.

Well, now here comes MLB Pipeline to rain on their parade.

Every update to their top 100 prospects is a big deal, and there's a new one out on Friday that unfortunately has Celesten and Farmelo among the biggest droppers. Each fell 13 places, with Celesten from No. 47 to No. 60 and Farmelo from No. 70 to No. 83.

Felnin Celesten and Jonny Farmelo have work to do to keep their Mariners trajectories on track

At issue for MLB Pipeline is how things took a turn for the worse for both Celesten and Farmelo after they got the bump from High-A to Double-A. There's no lie detected there. Celesten went from a 137 wRC+ to a 44 wRC+. Farmelo fared better, but still went from 120 to 105 with his own wRC+.

It's no secret that Dickey-Stephens Park, home of the Travelers, is extremely pitcher-friendly. Even so, that doesn't excuse these strikeout rate spikes for the 21-year-old Celesten and the 22-year-old Farmelo:

Celesten also basically halved his walk rate, from 12.4 to 6.7 percent. TJStats has his in-zone whiff rate the Double-A level in the 14 percentile, and that's over a not-quite-small sample size of 134 plate appearances. Whether the groin injury that ended his season had anything to do with it, Celesten was legitimately not good at hitting the ball at Double-A.

As Farmelo upped his own BB% from 15.5 to 16.4, it's at least possible to excuse his Double-A strikeout rate as a byproduct of a more patient approach. Yet the latest from MLB Pipeline specifically references issues with soft stuff. That's not an uncommon report on young hitters, but it is still disconcerting. Pitchers at the major league level just don't throw fastballs as often as they used to.

The last two prominent hitters to get humbled by the move from Everett to Arkansas were Lazaro Montes and Michael Arroyo, who are now in the big leagues. Yet Arroyo did so while cutting his strikeout rate. Montes did not, but he's a power-first guy in a way that Celesten and Farmelo are not. Each has more riding on his ability to produce consistent at-bats and regular contact.

By no means should anyone be writing either of them off. Don't shed any tears for the farm system as a whole either. It may have been a tough finish for Celesten and Farmelo, but they're still top-100 guys in an organization that graduated four such prospects to the majors in 2026.

They'll be fine. Probably. Hopefully.

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