Mariners will face the anti-Tigers in ALCS vs. Blue Jays — for better and worse

The Seattle Mariners pulled off one of the most grueling playoff victories in history on Friday, dispatching the Detroit Tigers after five hours and 15 innings in Game 5 of the ALDS. And after all that, they got one day to rest and recharge.

Between this and their home-field advantage at the Rogers Centre — where they went 54-27 in the regular season — the Toronto Blue Jays must feel pretty good about the circumstances under which they're welcoming the Mariners for Game 1 of the American League Championship Series on Sunday. They also have the starting pitching advantage, as their ace (Kevin Gausman) will be toeing the rubber opposite the Mariners' most volatile starter (Bryce Miller). First pitch will be at 5:03 p.m. PT.

As for the Mariners, what they surely already know about the Blue Jays is something that their fans should know as well: They are not the Tigers, in ways both good and bad.

The Blue Jays offense won't be as easy to solve as Detroit's

The Mariners beat the Tigers because they were able to out-pitch them. In Game 5, in particular, Seattle hurlers put on a masterclass as they limited Tigers hitters to just two runs (on one swing, no less) on eight hits and four walks over 15 innings.

However, we can also grant that the Mariners were up against one of the more vulnerable offenses in the league. At 23.9 percent, the Tigers had the highest strikeout rate of any playoff team. They also barely made it into the top 10 with 198 home runs, and ranked at the bottom of the league with just 61 stolen bases. By comparison, the Mariners were top-five with 238 homers and 161 steals.

All of those issues came into play in the ALDS, wherein the Tigers outscored the Mariners 20-19 but lost the home run battle and finished tied in the stolen base battle. Both teams struck out a ton, but what swung Game 5 was how many times each team whiffed after George Kirby and Tarik Skubal gave way to the bullpens. The Mariners fanned only seven times, compared to 11 for the Tigers.

Compared to the Tigers, the Blue Jays hit nine fewer homers and only stole 16 more bases, and the two clubs even had the exact same walk percentage. But the Blue Jays struck out in only 17.8 percent of their plate appearances, the lowest rate in MLB.

Though it obviously helped that the Blue Jays homered nine times in the series, it was their penchant for putting the ball in play that ultimately led them to victory over the New York Yankees in Game 4 of their ALDS. They struck out only six times in the game, and the long ball didn't factor into any of their five runs. They found some holes, but also forced the Yankees' defense to bend and bend before it finally broke. And all of that was without Bo Bichette, who is still sidelined with a knee injury.

If the Mariners end up being Toronto's next victim, this may be how it happens. Though their issues are not as public as those of the Yankees, the Mariners are not a good defensive team — and especially not on the infield, where they had -24 Outs Above Average this season.

At least Blue Jays pitchers don't bring the heat like Detroit's

On the plus side, at least the Blue Jays don't have a Tarik Skubal. As amazing as it is that the Mariners won both of the games he started in the ALDS, this was an incredible stroke of luck. He was electric in Game 2 and Game 5, with his 13 innings yielding only three runs on 22 strikeouts and one walk.

More broadly, Skubal typified what Mariners hitters saw from Tigers pitchers in the series. Namely, a whole bunch of velocity, with the average fastball from a Detroit pitcher registering at 96.2 mph, the highest for any staff in the Division Series.

This did not amount to a good time for Mariners hitters. Though they weren't bad at handling velocity during the regular season, they hit just .155 and slugged only .293 when a Tigers pitcher went 96 and above in the ALDS.

Which brings us to how the Blue Jays are not the Tigers in a good way for the Mariners: lighting up the radar gun is not really their thing.

Blue Jays pitchers ranked 28th with an average fastball of 92.9 mph in the regular season, and they only dialed it up to 94.7 mph for the ALDS. Better, but still sixth out of eight teams. Excepting Game 5 opener Louis Varland, the three starters they used in the series averaged 95.3 mph, 94.6 mph and 93.2 mph on the fastball. After Skubal and his 98.4 mph, that looks a lot like a potential reprieve.

This is not to suggest that Mariners hitters are in for an easy time. Hitting is never easy, and the truth is that the Mariners' cold effort in the ALDS — they hit .207/.292/.342 in the five games — wasn't solely because of Detroit's hot pitchers. There were too many bad at-bats, to a point where it felt like a miracle when the Mariners strung together their rally in the bottom of the 15 in Game 5.

Still, you take what you can get in October. And in this case, you gladly take the notion that the Blue Jays may not have what they need to prevent the Mariners from winning a slugfest in the ALCS.