Mariners top slugging prospect took a wrecking ball to ESPN's 'just missed' list

While the annual rollout of top-100 prospect lists is not a hot take competition, it can sometimes feel that way. As Exhibit A, we submit ESPN's treatment of Seattle Mariners right fielder Lazaro Montes.

When Kiley McDaniel published his top 100 prospects on Tuesday, Montes was not one of the five Mariners who made the cut. Thus did McDaniel zig where other publications zagged, as MLB Pipeline, Baseball America and The Athletic all rate the 21-year-old as one of the league's 100 best prospects.

The appeal of Montes is mostly in his power. He's 6-foot-5 and 210 pounds, and he's coming off a minor league season in which he slammed 32 home runs. This is even though he spent half the year with Double-A Arkansas, which plays in an extreme pitchers' park.

It's a funny thing, then, that McDaniel actually is able to acknowledge Montes' power outlook. So much so, in fact, that he kind of went out of his way to rain superlatives on his future as a slugger.

Lazaro Montes gets multiple shout-outs in ESPN's 'just missed' list despite missing the top 100

As a follow-up to his top 100, McDaniel presented a "just missed" list that has not one, but two mentions of Montes. In the first, he's tabbed as the most likely prospect to break into the top 50 in 2026. In the second, he's picked as the most likely prospect to lead MLB in home runs at his peak.

McDaniel's beef with Montes is that he's "somewhat one-dimensional right now." The home run power and the walks are there, but he doesn't make frequent contact and he's limited in what he can offer with his speed and defense.

All that is fair, but there's still a weird juxtaposition at play in McDaniel's reasoning with Montes. On the one hand, he seems to be underrating Montes' power as a carrying tool. On the other hand… well, McDaniel literally thinks he could lead MLB in home runs one day.

One is tempted to dunk on McDaniel for this, but he had a nuanced decision to make. Montes is obviously a boom-or-bust prospect, which forces evaluators to pick a side. If anything, one appreciates that McDaniel was bold enough to not give into groupthink on Montes' boom potential.

And, hey, at least McDaniel is consistent in his reasoning.

Probably the most comparable prospect to Montes is New York Yankees outfielder Spencer Jones. He's likewise a big guy with big power, but has question marks relating to his other skills. Jones hit more home runs (35) than Montes in 2025, yet he also struck out way more frequently and wasn't as good at drawing walks. Given that, it's a bit of mercy that McDaniel has Jones ranked 177th while Montes is only eight spots out of the top 100 at No. 108.

That Montes is already good at taking walks is the hidden silver lining in all this, as it indicates that he has a strong sense of a bigger strike zone than most hitters have to deal with. His eventual stardom will succeed or fail based on how well he covers his strike zone. As noted by Keith Law in his rankings for The Athletic, that's a hard skill for tall hitters to master.

One way or another, this year is going to be a big one for Montes. He seems likely to begin at Double-A and eventually make the jump to Triple-A. That would put him one step from the majors, and how quickly he makes that step will depend on how much better he can be.