Mariners top prospect's 2026 fate depends on free agency success

The Seattle Mariners entered the offseason with three key free agents, and they didn't necessarily have to choose just one of them to come back. And now that they've made their first choice, there's the question of who'll be next — and by extension, what it would mean for top prospect Colt Emerson.

With Josh Naylor back in the fold (much to his genuine delight, we might add) on a five-year, $92.5 million deal, the focus is now on Jorge Polanco. He was purportedly the most likely of the aforementioned trio of free agents to return this winter, and the door is still open.

“‘Polo’ is a great guy, and we have been in touch with him and his people,” Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto said on Tuesday, per Adam Jude of The Seattle Times. “I don’t imagine that it’s going to move as fast as it moved with Josh.”

What the Mariners do next in free agency has ramifications for their top prospect

As we've covered, the Mariners have already hit a snag with their efforts to bring back Polanco. Whereas Naylor very much wanted to return to Seattle, Polanco reportedly wants to let the market play out and see what comes to him.

It's a wholly understandable approach. The 32-year-old Polanco dramatically outperformed his $7 million salary in 2025, going off for a career-best 134 OPS+, 26 home runs and 30 doubles as he split time between DH and second base. He faced an easy call in rejecting his $6 million player option for 2026, as he's potentially worth at least twice that much annually in a multi-year deal.

If Polanco does drift away from Seattle, Eugenio Suárez could be the next man up. The Mariners haven't ruled him out, according to Jude, and there is still ostensibly an open spot for him at third base.

There are multiple complicating factors with chasing Suárez, however, starting with how there are real red flags in the 34-year-old's offensive profile. Re-signing Suárez would also cut off the clearest path to the 2026 Opening Day roster for Emerson, as Jude has reported that the Mariners are "open to the idea of Emerson starting 2026 as their third baseman."

After a solid, but unspectacular first full season in pro ball in 2024, the Mariners' No. 22 pick from the 2023 draft put it all together this season. He hit .285 with improved power in a journey that began at High-A Everett and ended at Triple-A Tacoma, and he also played excellent defense at shortstop. He is now ranked as MLB Pipeline's No. 9 overall prospect.

As things stand now, Emerson represents a real threat to take the Mariners' starting third base job from Ben Williamson with a strong showing in spring training. Re-signing Suárez would block that avenue off, and there wouldn't be a straightforward pivot.

Second base would potentially be there for Emerson's taking, but the Mariners may prefer to keep him on the left side of the infield. Otherwise, he'd have Cole Young, Leo Rivas and Ryan Bliss to overcome on the depth chart, which could be a big enough road block to force him back to Tacoma at least for the start of the 2026 season.

It's hard to predict how all of this is going to play out, and clarity may not come quickly. Though Naylor was quick to sign, MLB's free-agent market tends to be a slow burn that doesn't really heat up until the Winter Meetings, which are still a couple weeks away.