Mariners shouldn't be desperate enough to chase MLB's most polarizing free agent

The Seattle Mariners have not been great at putting the ball in play in recent seasons. And given that he's the best bat-to-ball hitter in MLB today, this hypothetically makes them a square hole to Luis Arraez's square peg in free agency.

It's an odd fit in other ways, of course. Arraez has spent the last two seasons as a primary first baseman, and the M's just secured Josh Naylor at the position for the next five years. There otherwise haven't been any solid rumors connecting Arraez to Seattle.

The concept, though, remains appealing enough for the Mariners to get tossed out there as a fit for the three-time batting champion. The MLB Trade Rumors crew did so in early November, and Mike Petriello of MLB.com just did the same — albeit without a full-throated endorsement of a pairing — in an article published on Friday.

Mariners must not be desperate enough to sign the polarizing Luis Arraez

Even with Naylor back at the cold corner, you can see how Arraez would fit in Seattle. With Jorge Polanco also currently looking for a job in free agency, Arraez could fill his role sharing time at second base and designated hitter, with his primary function being to set the table for Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodríguez, Randy Arozarena and Naylor out of the leadoff spot.

The Mariners had major deficiencies in the No. 1 hole this year, as it posted only a .311 OBP with 165 total strikeouts. That's one per game, whereas Arraez struck out only 21 times in 154 games for the San Diego Padres.

The latter should be one of those mic-drop stats. But at this point, noting that Arraez doesn't strike out is sort of like noting water is wet. It is the key ingredient in a .317 lifetime average that leads all active hitters, and it's a skill that the Mariners have more cause than most to covet. Though they made strides in 2025, they still lead all American League clubs in strikeouts over the last two seasons. And just in home games, they have fanned 71 more times than any other team.

Petriello addressed this dilemma in his piece on Arraez, and also called back to his earlier article on why it is literally so hard to hit at T-Mobile Park. It's a legitimate home field disadvantage, and Arraez is the best possible antidote the Mariners could ask for.

And yet, the question remains: Would Arraez actually make the Mariners better?

Nobody would dare to ask this a career .300 hitter if you go back 15, 10 or even five years ago. But in 2025, Arraez's faults barely hide behind even his .317 average. He's been a 1-WAR player in each of the last two seasons, mostly owing to how he fills out a Bingo card as lousy slugger, lousy baserunner, lousy defender and merely a decent on-base guy.

Arraez did get on base at a .379 clip in his first five seasons, but his OBP has since sunk to .337 across the last two. This is related to how he doesn't have the best zone discipline, as his chase rate was in the 15th percentile this year. Yet opposing pitchers have also hacked him, using his modest power — he had the seventh-lowest ISO among qualified hitters this year — as an invite to go right after him. Only four qualified hitters saw a higher rate of pitches in the strike zone this year.

Merely having Arraez atop the lineup would arguably be worth it for the synergy he would bring, but the evidence that his peskiness has a positive downstream effect is flimsy. To wit, the Padres were below-average at scoring this year even though Arraez's .292 average contributed to a team average of .252, the seventh-best in MLB.

With MLB Trade Rumors projecting Arraez to earn a two-year, $24 million contract, it wouldn't cost the Mariners an exorbitant amount of money to run an experiment with him anyway. In fact, it could be cheaper than bringing back Polanco, who's projected for three years, $42 million.

Polanco is a known quantity in Seattle, however, and that he was more than twice as valuable as Arraez in 2025 goes to show that even a .292 batting average only goes so far when placed against a comparable OBP and vastly superior slugging.

Even if the Mariners can't bring Polanco back, it would make just as much sense to roll with Cole Young at second base. He went through some tough on-the-job training this year, but Arraez's recent 1-WAR standard is a bar he can clear in what will only be his age-22 season in 2026 — the power is there, at least.

All of the above is the long way of saying that Arraez as a Mariner is undeniably intriguing, but not worth the effort. It comes down to him being more of an interesting player than a good player, and there are plenty of interesting players lying around who don't cost eight figures per year.