Mariners should absolutely call if Phillies shop Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber

How soon is too soon for Seattle Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto to put in a call to Dave Dombrowski? Should he let Dombrowski process the Philadelphia Phillies' latest playoff disappointment? Or should he risk breaking decorum and ask if Bryce Harper and/or Kyle Schwarber is available?

We wouldn't be raising this conversation if it wasn't a hundred kinds of obvious that the Phillies needed a shakeup. With their loss to the Atlanta Braves in the Wild Card Series, a pattern of diminishing returns since the 2022 World Series continued unabated. Alarm bells are ringing and big ideas are flowing.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic pondered whether Harper and Schwarber should be on the trading block this winter. Bob Nightengale of USA Today went there, too. You can be a stickler and point out that they did so in a "Just asking questions" sort of way, but can anyone say that shopping one or both players is a bad idea?

There was beef between Harper and Dombrowski last winter. And while he and Schwarber had good years, that each played in his age-33 season is not ideal. Time comes for everyone, and they're but two of many Phillies players on the older side.

If the team is going to pursue a youth movement, trading one or both could make sense. And that's where the Mariners should be interested in helping out if given the opportunity.

Why the Mariners can't *not* call if Bryce Harper or Kyle Schwarber is available

When looking back at Seattle's 76-86 season, there's no getting around how badly the team needed an impact bat even with Randy Arozarena. Now the 31-year-old is about to be a free agent, with his chin held high after producing career-bests with a 148 OPS+ and 5.7 rWAR, all while securing a sixth straight 20-20 season.

His price tag? Maybe as high as $125 million, according to Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times. Whoever pays that, it won't be the Mariners. There was the Robinson Canó deal once upon a time, but that was before John Stanton took control of the franchise. He has made it clear that his organizational philosophy has no room for paying 30-somethings for what they did in their 20s.

Things brings us back to Harper and Schwarber, whose remaining contracts fall more or less into Arozarena's likely territory:

• Bryce Harper: $125.7 million through 2031
• Kyle Schwarber: $132 million through 2030

The question, though, is if the Mariners could get either one without adding all that money.

Harper and Schwarber very likely have neutral or even negative surplus value, which represents a complication if Dombrowski wants to trade one of them. If the idea is more about getting talent back and less about offloading payroll, then the Phillies would have to eat money to facilitate a deal.

In a trade involving, say, Michael Arroyo, we might be talking around $20 million. For Lazaro Montes, more like $25 million. For George Kirby, potentially $30 million.

From where we're sitting, any trade proposal for Harper or Schwarber that gets the actual price tag down around or even below $100 million is one the Mariners would have to take seriously. As scary as their ages may be, these are two veterans who A) have tons of experience and B) still rake.

Between them, Harper and Schwarber have played in 136 playoff games. Even in his 30s, Harper has averaged a 136 OPS+ and 29 home runs over the last three seasons. Schwarber has done no worse than 38 homers in any of the last five seasons, likewise settling in the 130 OPS+ range for the last three.

Only Harper has the right to block trades. He and his family make their offseason home in Tennessee, quite far from the Pacific Northwest and the Mariners' spring training complex in Peoria. The sales pitch from the Mariners would have to be strong, perhaps centered on the possibility of him being the guy to lead a long-suffering franchise to the World Series.

Are Harper and Schwarber long shots? Well, yeah. Yet in an offseason where the Mariners need to shake things up just as much as the Phillies do, everything should be on the table.

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