Mariners' September playoff push hinges on underachieving trade deadline haul

Welcome to the final month of MLB's 2025 regular season, where the Seattle Mariners are hanging on for their playoff lives heading into their next series against the Tampa Bay Rays.

They are not in a bad spot, at least not insofar as they are currently positioned to play in October for the second time in four seasons. But nor are they in an ideal spot, as they trail the Houston Astros in the AL West by 2.0 games and are not running away with the AL's third wild card spot. Three teams are within 4.0 games of their pace at 73-64.

This is not where Mariners fans hoped the team would be back on Opening Day, much less on July 31. After the trade deadline came and went, the Mariners looked like a "World Series or bust" team even before they ripped off 10 wins in 11 games.

There are a bunch of reasons why they're only 6-11 since then, and one that deserves more attention must be put bluntly: Their much-hyped trade deadline haul has kind of stunk.

It's now or never for the Mariners' trade deadline haul to earn the hype

The Mariners should have done more at the deadline, but nobody was outright disappointed at their three-pronged strike for Josh Naylor, Eugenio Suárez, and Caleb Ferguson. The first two, in particular, figured to transform the lineup and further strengthen an already strong clubhouse culture.

The second of those missions has been accomplished, at least. Naylor's trademark intensity has been a welcome addition, and the team was so jazzed to have Suárez's "Good Vibes Only" personality back that it did what no group of humans ever wants to do: Sit on an airport tarmac for 45 minutes.

A little over a month later, though, Naylor and Suárez simply haven't given the Mariners what they gave the Arizona Diamondbacks:

• As Diamondbacks: .269/.339/.515, 132 wRC+
• As Mariners: .225/.283/.417, 99 wRC+

Though Suárez has been the more visible slumper of the two to the tune of an 88 wRC+ as a Mariner — compared to a whopping 141 wRC+ as a D-back — Naylor's production has also taken a turn for the worse. His wRC+ is down from 122 before the trade to 109 after it, and he only has a .548 OPS and one homer to show for his last 14 games.

As these two were supposed to elevate the Mariners offense, it should come as no great surprise that it basically stalled out in August. After posting a .734 OPS and 44 homers in July, it stood pat with a .718 OPS and 41 homers last month.

This is not the sole reason the team limped to the finish line in August. The rotation was inconsistent at best, and even Andrés Muñoz was complicit in a pattern of frequent meltdowns by the bullpen. That Ferguson only has a 4.50 ERA in 14 appearances as a Mariner has not helped the latter.

And yet, to pin Seattle's precarious playoff standing on the pitching is kind of like blaming Robin for letting the Joker get away with something when Batman is standing right there.

The rotation and bullpen are what they are, and it's well past time to give up believing that either will be as dominant as it was last year. Especially after Jerry Dipoto went all-in on crafting the deepest one-through-nine the Mariners have had in years, it's the offense that is supposed to be carrying the team right now.

To this end, the M's can't really ask for more from Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodríguez, and Randy Arozarena. All three have either met or exceeded expectations, and it's hard not to say the same of fellow regulars such as J.P. Crawford and Jorge Polanco. Meanwhile, Cole Young is learning on the job and Victor Robles and Luke Raley can chalk their down years up to injury.

For their part, really the only good excuse Naylor and Suárez have is that it's not their fault that Dipoto bought high on them. And there is something to be said about how regression was likely inevitable for both, in which case their additions were only ever likely to prevent problem spots at first and third base from getting even worse.

And yet, the existence of a logical explanation should not overrule the aspirations that the Mariners and their fans have every right to have for Naylor and Suárez. They're supposed to be here to hit, and what hopes this team has will likely remain out of reach for as long as they don't do that.

With only 25 games left and the team's playoff dreams in danger, it's now or never for the new guys to show why they're here.

Game Times and Probable Pitchers for Mariners vs. Rays, September 1-3

• Monday, September 1 at 4:35 p.m. PT: Luis Castillo vs. Shane Baz
• Tuesday, September 2 at 4:35 p.m. PT: Bryan Woo vs. Drew Rasmussen
• Wednesday, September 3 at 4:35 p.m. PT: George Kirby vs. Adrian Houser