Mariners' return to piggyback should feature a major Emerson Hancock pivot

If the Seattle Mariners must dust off the piggyback, Bryce Miller simply can't be the guy who partners with Luis Castillo again. By process of elimination, that role should fall to Emerson Hancock instead.

For now, we know courtesy of MLB.com's Daniel Kramer that something is afoot in the Mariners' plans for their starting rotation. Logan Gilbert and George Kirby are listed as the starters against the Baltimore Orioles on Tuesday and Wednesday, and then "TBD" for Thursday's finale.

It could be Bryan Woo on six days' rest. Or, it could be Miller on five days' rest. The latter route would effectively bump Miller up in the rotation, and that would be nothing if not well-deserved. He's been spectacular in his appearances since coming off the IL with an oblique injury, posting a 1.54 ERA over 35.0 innings.

If the Mariners do bump Miller up and Woo back, it doesn't necessarily mean that the six-man rotation is out and the piggyback is, er, back. But that does seem to be the way the wind is blowing. For all the drama that surrounded it, the piggyback was ultimately a success. The Mariners put it on hiatus only because a six-man rotation made the most sense for a 10-day, 10-game, three-city road trip that concluded on Sunday.

Every available stat suggests Emerson Hancock would be perfect for the piggyback

As for why Emerson should take Miller's spot if the Mariners return to the piggyback, one motivation is to protect the righty from regression before it consumes him entirely.

It was jarring to see Hancock get tagged for six runs by the Washington Nationals on Sunday, but also not especially surprising. Sure, it's the most runs he's given up in 14 starts. But basically everything underneath the hood of his 2.74 ERA coming in suggested it was bound to happen.

His peripheral stats simply aren't good, as he notably features a wide gap between his actual 3.28 ERA and his expected 4.45 ERA. That gets at how he's been hit pretty hard, which is an issue given that his whiff rate is only in the 34th percentile.

So, there's that. There are also stats that show Hancock loses steam as he gets deeper into games, whether it's his times through the order splits:

• 1st Time: .527 OPS
• 2nd Time: .685 OPS
• 3rd Time: .811 OPS

Or his splits by pitches:

• Pitch 1-25: .525 OPS
• Pitch 26-50: .691 OPS
• Pitch 51-75: .588 OPS
• Pitch 76-100: .862 OPS

In the three uses of the Miller-Castillo piggyback, each typically landed in the 65-80 pitch range and pitched no more than five innings. Hancock is ideally suited for that kind of work on paper, especially knowing that he is very much complicit in the Mariners' broader problem with the sixth inning.

What's inarguable either way is that Castillo must be half of whatever piggyback combination the Mariners go with. He's at least used to it, and it fits with how he has exposure problems of his own when he works deep into games.

If the Mariners due pursue a Hancock-Castillo piggyback, it could go into effect as soon as Saturday against the Boston Red Sox. It would once again be a temporary solution until a decision needs to be made on Kade Anderson and/or the trade deadline, but that's for another day.

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