Mariners prospect's slow start could send him plummeting down FanSided Top 100

The Mariners aren't hurting for top-shelf prospects, and most of them have relatively safe profiles. The big exception has been Lazaro Montes, who gets rated as a top-100 prospect solely on the promise that he will hit. And ever since he got bumped to Double-A last summer, he has been breaking this promise.

The 21-year-old now has 84 games with the Arkansas Travelers under his belt, and his average and on-base percentage are continuing to hover in the low .200s and low .300s, respectively. Yet the bigger alarm bell concerns the downfall of his power. After slugging .504 with 32 home runs throughout 2025, he's down to a .348 SLG and one homer this year.

After he upped his whiff rate to 41.5 percent at Double-A last season, the Mariners needed to see less swing-and-miss from Montes this season. Based on his strikeout rate, that isn't happening. He fanned at a 30.5 percent clip for Arkansas in 2025 and is only down to 30.0 percent in 2026.

For what it's worth, the one homer the 6-foot-5, 210-pounder does have this season was a 113 mph bolt that serves as proof that his raw power is still booming. And honestly, we still maintain that he's more than just a big arm out in right field.

But when the default point of comparison for a guy is Yordan Alvarez, said guy had better be handy with the stick. Montes is instead looking like the fool's gold version of the Astros slugger, as his cold bat at Double-A is in keeping with a trend of diminishing returns. He had a .957 OPS at Single-A, an .892 OPS at High-A, and now a .738 OPS at Double-A.

Lazaro Montes' standing in the Mariners organization should be on thin ice

Montes generally ranks in the middle of top-100 prospect lists, and FanSided's Eric Cole stuck with that theme in ranking him as the No. 52 talent in baseball last week. But that came with a caveat that this is a "big season" for the Cuba native, whose value is in danger of dipping if he struggles to advance up the minor league ranks.

There are already some sour opinions on him out there, and prospects who could pass him up on FanSided's next top 100 include hot hands like Braden Montgomery (CHW), George Lombard Jr. (NYY), JR Ritchie (ATL) and Elmer Rodriguez (NYY). At worst, you can imagine Montes sliding way down the list, or even off it.

In the long run, the bigger question is what the future even holds for Montes in the Mariners organization. It's already fair to wonder if the best window to trade him has already shut, as he was reportedly of interest to the Cardinals during the Brendan Donovan negotiations. On the chance that he does heat up again, the Mariners might have to seriously consider moving him for real rather than reigniting hopes that he can have an impact in Seattle.

For now, Montes isn't quite in prospect limbo. But that's the way he's been trending ever since he got bumped to Double-A, and that was almost a year ago.

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