Mariners' projected 2029 lineup has Mariners fans salivating — and confused

Baseball America dropped a graphic this week that might as well have been labeled “Dear Mariners fans, please daydream irresponsibly.”

Their projected 2029 lineup for Seattle is basically franchise-mode heaven: Cal Raleigh still catching, Josh Naylor planted at first, Cole Young and Colt Emerson holding down the left side of the infield, Michael Arroyo at second, Julio Rodríguez in center, Randy Arozarena in left, Jonny Farmelo in right, with a rotation fronted by Bryan Woo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and a back end locked down by Andrés Muñoz. 

On vibes alone? Incredible. That looks like a group that could win a lot of games and sell a whole lot of jerseys. But the longer you look at it, the more your brain slips into contract mode.

Mariners’ 2029 dream lineup projection raises some big questions

Arozarena’s lined up to hit free agency after 2026 unless the Mariners buy out that last arb year and tack on more. Gilbert’s not far behind, creeping toward the open market after 2027, despite plenty of extension buzz already around him. Kirby’s free-agent clock is ticking toward the 2028 offseason, too. And Muñoz, as friendly as his deal is now, is only under team control through a pair of club options that end in 2028. 

Quietly, Baseball America’s take on 2029 appears to assume that Seattle will be able to retain all four players from its core (Kirby, Gilbert, Arozarena, and Muñoz) into their early-to-mid thirties with huge contracts on Julio, Raleigh and Naylor already on the books. It is possible that this could happen as Seattle's ownership has been more vocal in recent years about wanting to spend money; however, it would require a significant amount of faith in the financial commitments teased in this graphic.

Then there’s the infield alignment. Their projected group has Young at shortstop, Emerson at third and Arroyo at second. That could absolutely happen, but it’s hardly the only way this could break. Emerson is listed as the system’s best defensive infielder with the best infield arm, while Arroyo owns the “best strike-zone discipline” tag.  Depending on who grows, who thickens up, and who the club trusts most up the middle, you could easily imagine Emerson at short, Young bouncing between second and third, or Arroyo pushed to left field if the bat outpaces the glove.

So are we over-thinking a fun little crystal-ball exercise? Yeah, probably. Baseball America’s job here is to showcase the organization’s talent and sketch a possible future, not deliver Jerry Dipoto’s five-year payroll model.

But it’s also fair for Mariners fans to treat that lineup as both a dream and a challenge. If you want that 2029 card even close to reality, it means hitting on the kids and finding a way to keep a big chunk of the current core together.

In the meantime, enjoy the graphic, save it to your phone, and maybe don’t write it in pen just yet.