Mariners must not waste a can't-miss opportunity in series vs. Royals

The Seattle Mariners must be exhausted. Though the effort was a successful one, they just played 34 innings in three days against the Texas Rangers and then had to make the four-plus hour flight back to Seattle. And with their next series starting on Monday evening, there is no rest for the weary.

It's a bit of mercy, then, that the Mariners are set for four games against an opponent that has not exactly been having a good time in June.

Though the Kansas City Royals are "only" six games under .500 at 39-45 overall, this month has seen them go 8-17 with losses in seven out of their last eight. For FanGraphs, their odds of making the playoffs have plummeted from a high of 61.6 to just 11.6 percent.

Normally, indicators like these would have us fearing a trap series, a la when the Mariners got their butts handed to them by the Washington Nationals and Baltimore Orioles in late May and early June. But given the specific circumstances, this just plain feels different.

Hot off a successful road trip, the Mariners prepare to take on the flailing Royals

The Royals are where they are for a simple, yet not terribly surprising reason: They can't score.

Kansas City ranks dead-last in MLB with an average of 3.30 runs per game, which goes to show that even a relatively respectable .245 average doesn't count for much if an offense can't do thunder or lightning. The Royals are last with 58 home runs and they have been successful on just 68 percent of their stolen base attempts.

Getting enough offense wasn't really an issue for the Royals in 2024, when they were actually above average in scoring in support of an excellent pitching staff. Yet last year's lineup just never really felt dangerous, in large part because it lacked dangerous hitters outside of the sensational Bobby Witt Jr.

He is still sensational in 2025, just...well, less so. The star shortstop is leading MLB with 29 doubles, but his OPS is down 148 points and he has only 11 home runs. He also has just a .722 OPS over his last 38 games.

The promotion of uber-prospect Jac Caglianone on June 3 was meant to infuse the Royals' offense with a much-needed spark. He's instead become merely the latest poster boy for the growing gap between Triple-A and the majors, as his first 23 games have yielded only a .165 average and two home runs.

Granted, it is hard to take anything for granted with the Mariners' own offense, and especially whenever the venue for an upcoming series is T-Mobile Park. It has long been a drain on the home team's offensive abilities, and particularly so here in 2025.

Contrary to the Royals, however, the Mariners and the offense at least have some helium heading into Monday's opener. They have won 10 out of their last 16, scoring an average of 5.6 runs per game in the process.

It doesn't feel like the lineup is clicking, per se, but it no longer feels like it's The Cal Raleigh Show, Featuring a Bunch of Semi-Useful Randos. Julio Rodríguez has at least been a steady supply of hits as he struggles to get his power going, while Randy Arozarena, Donovan Solano, and Mitch Garver have found their strokes. Luke Raley and Dominic Canzone, meanwhile, are providing good pop from the left side.

As a bonus, the Mariners will manage to dodge Kris Bubic and his 2.25 ERA in this series after he pitched for the Royals on Sunday. They also won't be seeing Cole Ragans, who has been out since June 5 with a rotator cuff strain.

Seattle's own starting pitching has been on the side of shaky in June, but at least the same can't be said about the bullpen. Even with ace closer Andrés Muñoz showing signs of mortality, the pen has a season-low 3.31 ERA for the month and has been getting contributions from just about everyone.

At the risk of straying too far into optimistic territory, it is notable that the Mariners don't have a single winning team chasing them in the AL wild card picture. Between that and the fact that they hold a 2.0-game lead for the third and final spot, their 59.9 percent chance to make the playoffs (again per FanGraphs) almost sounds conservative.

Either way, they obviously need to keep the Ws coming. And over the next four days, they have a golden opportunity to do so against a team that has mostly been trafficking in Ls of late.

Game Times and Probable Pitchers for Mariners vs. Royals, June 30-July 3

• Monday, June 30 at 6:40 p.m. PT: Michael Wacha vs. George Kirby
• Tuesday, July 1 at 6:40 p.m. PT: Michael Lorenzen vs. Emerson Hancock
• Wednesday, July 2 at 6:40 p.m. PT: Noah Cameron vs. Logan Gilbert
• Thursday, July 3 at 7:10 p.m. PT: Seth Lugo vs. Bryan Woo