Mariners might be stuck watching Colt Emerson struggle to become a $95M player

One of the first things the Mariners front office did this year was ink an eight-year, $95 million contract extension with top prospect Colt Emerson. It became the largest deal in MLB history for a player yet to make his big-league debut, but Seattle had every right to be excited about him. He debuted just a few weeks later, taking the field for the first time on May 17th and has stayed on the roster ever since, largely thanks to Brendan Donovan's persistent injury issues.

Despite the high hopes, Emerson hasn't quite found the same success as other top rookies like JJ Wetherholt and Kevin McGonigle. Across 189 plate appearances, he has an OPS+ of 81 and a 33.3% strikeout rate. In fact, one could argue that not much is going well for him at the big league level but is it enough to question the quality of his contract already?

Colt Emerson will need more time to be able to live up to the hype of his big contract extension

Emerson doesn't have enough playing time to be considered qualified yet but the data we do have on him isn't very promising. As a prospect, he had one of the best hit tools around, but his showing in the majors has been the opposite. Both his contact and quality of contact numbers leave plenty to be desired.

As a primary shortstop, his lack of offensive production could be compensated for by run prevention but defensively, he has been right around league average so far, posting a combined Defensive Runs Saved of 0 across his time at shortstop and third base combined.

But don't let these first-year numbers fool you. When teams sign top prospects to long-term contracts, this is an assumed tradeoff. Clubs are willing to overpay for the first few years of a player's career if it means that they get more value for their money in the latter part of the contract. If it takes until 2028 for Emerson to really break out, the Mariners can still get several years of an outstanding shortstop at a team-friendly AAV.

It's also important to acknowledge that he's barely over 21 years old and has his entire athletic prime ahead of him. There's plenty of reason to believe that this is a temporary bump in the road. In fact, look no further than fellow middle infielder and top Seattle prospect, Cole Young.

Young finished his rookie year with a 77 OPS+ and 0.4 rWAR over 257 plate appearances. It was a disappointing campaign but his sophomore campaign has been a massive step forward. He's now tied with Randy Arozarena for being the most valuable member of the team by rWAR (3.1) and is poised to be a big part of the organization's future.

Young was a highly-touted talent himself but he never quite made it to the upper echelon of top prospects. Emerson, on the other hand, was ranked as the No. 9 prospect in baseball heading into this season. This isn't to say that he's guaranteed to have a better career but the consensus is that his ceiling is higher.

Signing a long-term extension this early in one's career is a double-edged sword. Financial security is front-loaded along with all of the pressure and expectations. Emerson hasn't looked like a $95 million player yet but he still has quite a few years to change everyone's minds.

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