Mariners may be witnessing the beginning of the end for Astros' AL West dynasty

Rumors of the Astros' demise have popped up occasionally throughout the 2020s, but none have led to anything definitive. Their dynasty seemed alive and well as late as August of last year, and they entered 2026 as a real threat to win the AL West for the eighth time in 10 years.

Obviously, it's the Mariners who got between the Astros and another AL West title last year. And after taking the first three games of their season series with Houston, they're now 28-14 against the Astros since 2023.

For Houston, the last three games in Seattle have consisted of two high-scoring routs and one epic comeback by the home team. The Astros have gotten just 5.2 innings from their starting pitchers, with Tatsuya Imai (Friday) and Cody Bolton (Sunday) both leaving their starts early with injuries. Shortstop Jeremy Peña had to leave Saturday's game in his own right. He and Imai hit the injured list on Monday.

Hence, the worst of both worlds for the 2017* and 2022 World Series champions. They're in last place in the AL West at 6-10, and they're just plain stockpiling injuries.

Injuries don't tell the whole story of how much trouble the Astros are already in

Given all their pitching injuries, perhaps it shouldn't be a surprise that the Astros lead MLB with 101 runs allowed. Yet that number is still shocking. It's 13 more runs than any other team, and it's only two shy of Houston's franchise record for the first 16 games of a season.

Further, this is just all wrong:

• Innings by Astros Starters: 65.1
• Innings by Astros Relievers: 72.0

That's not how the division of labor between starters and relievers is supposed to work. And this is an Astros bullpen that is missing Josh Hader, as well as the typical version of Bryan Abreu. His fastball is down about 2 mph and he's already allowed half as many earned runs as he did in all of 2025.

It's the bats that are keeping Houston semi-competitive on a day-to-day basis, and you don't need to tell us how scary that lineup is when Yordan Alvarez is healthy. But when even an offense that leads MLB with 93 runs scored can't cover up the pitching backing it, well, that's a problem.

There may not be any cavalry to come save the Astros. Trades and free agency have rendered their roster shallower and shallower in recent years, and their farm system is in rough shape, too. MLB Pipeline had it ranked at No. 29 in the league in March.

It's easy to see the current Mariners vs. Astros series as a study in contrasts. The Mariners are the defending AL West champs, and they are A) relatively healthy, B) dominating on the mound, and C) built for the long haul. The Mariners have based their roster around a core of young stars, and in their farm system are several of MLB's brightest prospects.

The Mariners have their own early-season problems, of course, which is reflected in how they're only No. 17 in FanSided's latest MLB Power Rankings. Even after three straight high-scoring days, the offense is still the big one.

The Astros, though, are rightfully No. 25 on that same list. At the risk of prematurely dancing on the their grave, they sure look like a threat the Mariners can take a little more lightly than in years past.