Mariners have more than their playoff fate on the line in clash with Astros

Though the Seattle Mariners have nine games left in their regular season, only the next three really matter. This is an exaggeration. It is also true, at least in an emotional sense.

The Mariners are in Houston for a three-game series with the Astros at Daikin Park. The stakes couldn't be higher, as the two clubs share identical 84-69 records and are pursuing the following:

• Season Series: Tied 5-5
• AL West Title: Tied for 1st place
• First-Round Bye: Trail Detroit Tigers by 1.0 game

This is the closest to an AL West title the Mariners have been since back in 2001. They won that one with 14.0 games' worth of breathing room, as one would expect at the end of a 116-win season.

The Mariners aren't just playing for their playoff lives. They're playing for legitimacy.

Even the '01 Mariners never took their foot off the gas, ultimately winning 20 of their last 27 games. The 2025 Mariners are trying to run that same play, as they're going into Houston with momentum by way of 11 wins in their last 12 games.

Annoyingly, the Astros have done their best to minimize Seattle's recent dominance. The 7.0-game lead they had in July may be gone, but wins in five out of six have kept them in stride with the Mariners. They just proved they can handle a hot team, as they're fresh off sweeping a Texas Rangers squad that had won 16 out of 20.

Either way, both clubs will know the score this weekend. Win two games, and you win the season series and a crucial tiebreaker. Win all three games, and you bury the other team 3.0 games down in the standings with only six games left to go.

The odds favor the Mariners, with FanGraphs and Baseball Reference giving them a 58 percent chance of winning the AL West. If they do it, they'll celebrate their first division title in 24 years, while the Astros mourn what may be the end of a run that has seen them win the AL West seven times in eight seasons.

Still, now is no time for overconfidence. The Mariners and their fans can just ask Joc Pederson, whose take on the AL West from last December has aged terribly:

Thankfully, there is no such hubris coming from the Mariners. This team doesn't have that kind of character, in part because Dan Wilson is really good at the whole cool, calm and collected thing.

This is not to say the Mariners shouldn't be feeling any kind of confident going into this series. They have their three best starters lined up, and this will be the Astros' first look at their post-deadline offense. Despite some stumbles here and there, the Mariners have outscored the Astros by 47 runs since August 1.

It is nonetheless humbling to think of how much just two losses in this series would set the Mariners back. They would still have six games to claw their way back to first place, but the tiebreaker would be gone and the sheer threat of the Astros would still be there.

It's one the Mariners have been trying to defuse for four seasons now, and they have come close to doing so a couple times. They were outscored by only four runs even as the Astros swept them in the ALDS in 2022. And in each of the last two years, the Mariners have won the season series.

Yet the dragon remains unslain. And for the Mariners, finally slaying it won't merely mean grabbing the keys to the AL West. It will mean legitimizing their yearslong struggle to prove they truly belong at the top of the division.

Win this weekend, and it's truly World Series or bust. Lose this weekend, and it's get 'em next time, with the only hope being that there will be a next time before 2025 is over.

Game Times and Probable Pitchers for Mariners vs. Astros: September 19-21

• Friday, September 19 at 5:10 p.m. PT: Bryan Woo vs. Hunter Brown
• Saturday, September 20 at 4:10 p.m. PT: George Kirby vs. Framber Valdez
• Sunday, September 21 at 4:10 p.m. PT: Logan Gilbert vs. Jason Alexander