Mariners have golden chance to buy low on scorned White Sox trade target

Even now, the possibility of the Seattle Mariners pulling off a trade for Luis Robert Jr. might not sound especially appetizing. In fact, it might even be downright repulsive.

It's a notion that has been floated in the past, including by MLB insider Francys Romero in June. That was when Robert was still batting under the Mendoza line for the Chicago White Sox, with an OPS in the .500s to boot. This was also around when even he was down on his trade value.

“Right now, as my season is going, I don't think anybody is going to take a chance on me,” said Robert in May through interpreter Billy Russo, as per Scott Merkin of MLB.com. “I just focus on trying to get better. I can't think of anything else.”

The Mariners still need an outfielder, and Robert is suddenly hot again

Well, don't look now, but suddenly the 27-year-old is red hot at the plate with a 1.023 OPS in July. He has his batting average up over .200 and his OPS comfortably into the .600s, which feel like huge strides relative to where he was just a couple of weeks ago.

Granted, we're talking about a sample size of only 10 games. But these are following on the heels of a nice warm stretch at the end of June, leading us to these splits:

• Through June 9: 233 PA, 5 HR, 31.3 K%, .177 AVG, .265 OBP, .281 SLG
• Since June 10: 90 PA, 5 HR, 23.3 K%, .278 AVG, .360 OBP, .506 SLG

This sure looks like a hitter who has turned a corner, and Robert's overall .866 OPS since June 10 is suspiciously reminiscent of when he had a .857 OPS in his All-Star breakout in 2023. He homered 38 times and stole 20 bases that year, ultimately compiling 5.3 rWAR.

The chances of Robert being traded nonetheless seem to have taken a turn for the worse, with ESPN's Buster Olney writing that it "seems unlikely" that the White Sox will deal him. But it also doesn't make much sense for them to close themselves off to offers, as the alternative is holding onto Robert and (presumably) declining his $20 million option for 2026.

Meanwhile at The Athletic, Jim Bowden has raised Robert's name as a possibility for the Mariners if they opt to improve their outfield ahead of the July 31 trade deadline. It wouldn't be a bad idea to do so, specifically for a right field spot that ranks 27th in the league with an 83 wRC+.

Robert's $15 million salary and subsequent $20 million club options for 2026 and 2027 are potential hurdles for the Mariners, but his actual trade value remains low enough for Jerry Dipoto to at least wonder about potentially landing a steal. Baseball Trade Values estimates Robert's surplus value at $1.5 million in the red, meaning the White Sox could have to eat some money in order to get anything of value from Seattle.

As an example, one trade pitch that works involves the Mariners getting Robert and $5 million in exchange for Tyler Locklear. In other words: The Mariners get a new right fielder for just $2.6 million on their end, and the White Sox get an MLB-ready first base prospect who seems to have fallen out of favor in Seattle.

This is just one idea, but the appeal of Robert for the Mariners either way should be that of an opportunity to buy low on a high-reward player. And there's no reason it would have to be Dipoto's only move at the trade deadline, as he would still have the capital to go get, say, a third baseman and an ace reliever.

Whatever the case, it does feel like now or never do Dipoto to make a major push. This is his 10th season in charge of the Mariners front office, and ownership will have every reason to wonder if it's been worth it if the playoffs elude the team for the ninth time on his watch.