Seattle's pitchers tend to get away with a lot. The Mariners have established a reputation for having outstanding talent on the mound and most, if not all, of the team's struggles are typically pinned on the offense for failing to hold up their end of the bargain. This divide is even more pronounced this season, with the team's best position players largely failing to deliver in the first half while their rotation has gotten even more reinforcements.
However, the other side of the team's pitching staff hasn't been quite so impressive. The Mariners have a combined reliever ERA of 4.38, 23rd in MLB, and Dan Wilson's management of the bullpen has been a recurring point of criticism since last year's ALCS. For the most part, Seattle's relief unit has taken a step back since last year and with Matt Brash missing extended time, late innings in close games have become a stressful fan experience, especially when Gabe Speier has taken the mound.
Gabe Speier has had a shaky August and it doesn't look like he's moving in the right direction
On the surface, Speier is having another spectacular year as one of Seattle's few left-handed pitching options. Heading into August, his 1.84 ERA was the third-best mark among southpaw relievers with more than 25 innings, trailing only Aroldis Chapman (1.67) and Brant Headrick (1.46). However in August, he has given up four earned runs in just 6.1 innings pitched.
His FIP has been quite a bit worse than his ERA for much of the season and this is typically a sign that a pitcher will soon regress to the mean. His strikeout rate of just 20.4%, is by far the lowest it has been since he joined the Mariners. His walk rate of 8.8% is on the higher end for him.
A closer look at his numbers before and during August show that the clearest issue is that he's missing half as many bats this month. Even if he's avoided giving up any loud contact, more balls in play will inevitably lead to more hits and more traffic. Fewer whiffs and a decreased chase rate also puts Speier in hitter's counts more frequently.
Before August 1st | After August 1st | |
|---|---|---|
K % | 28.5 | 16.7 |
BB % | 5.7 | 10.0 |
Whiff % | 28.5 | 14.6 |
O-Swing % | 33.6 | 27.5 |
Barrel % | 7.8 | 0.0 |
Not only is this decline in performance coming at the worst possible time for a team that's already struggling to stay afloat in the standings, but it calls the front office's trade deadline approach into question. The only bullpen arm of note that was acquired was Seranthony Domínguez, who has been even less effective than Speier since arriving in Seattle. The offense rightfully took center stage but with a wealth of prospects still in the farm system, the Mariners could've pursued additional bullpen depth more aggressively.
Had the front office acquired another southpaw reliever, Dan Wilson may have had a more reliable left-handed bullpen option for the final two months of the season and overall, the team's run prevention could've helped balance the lackluster lineup. Unfortunately, there's not much the organization can do about it now and apart from an individual renaissance in the final month of the regular season, Speier could end up being more of a liability than an asset over the last stretch of the year.
