Mariners get a key vote of confidence that somehow feels overly optimistic

It's slow progress, but the Mariners are gradually moving in the right direction. The team has combined for an .837 OPS over the past seven days (7th in MLB) thanks to the continued efforts of Cole Young and Randy Arozarena, while Cal Raleigh is finally warming up to the 2026 season.

With a 15-16 record, the Mariners are now just one game behind the Athletics in the AL West and their playoffs odds are at 75.3 percent according to FanGraphs. Given their recent upswing in momentum and preseason projections, it's somewhat unsurprising that MLB executives overwhelmingly chose Seattle as the favorites to win the division

But is their optimism misplaced?

The Mariners' path to winning the AL West won't be as easy as some are making it out to seem

Although 15 out of 16 executives polled stated that Seattle would win the division, the reality is far less clear. FanGraphs gives them a 54.4 percent chance to win the division, which is down from the 64.6 peak on March 29th. And while the actual contributors to the final number are opaque, we can make some assumptions as to what obstacles are standing in their way.

The rotation is often cited as the strength of the team and justifiably so, but that doesn't mean that everyone has been pitching like an ace. Logan Gilbert's results have been lukewarm thus far and Luis Castillo's start to the season has simply been disappointing, potentially signalling a more serious regression.

Much of the bullpen has been solid but there are underlying causes for concern. Matt Brash, Gabe Speier, and Cooper Criswell have impressive ERA figures but their xERA and strikeout rates suggest that they may struggle to maintain this level of run prevention for the rest of the season.

The lineup is trending in the right direction, but there are still some players that haven't gotten back into the swing of things. The most notable example is J.P. Crawford, who has posted a 76 OPS+ over 91 plate appearances this season. He continues to demonstrate elite plate discipline, but his .260 slugging percentage has severely limited his contributions at the plate.

Aside from the Mariners' own weaknesses, the Athletics, who are likely the biggest competition for the AL West crown, also bring their own fair share of threats to the table. Shea Langeliers and Nick Kurtz have continued to shine, and now Carlos Cortes looks ready to fully break out in his sophomore campaign.

The Mariners are the sensible choice to win the division, but perhaps not by the landslide that many may think. There are too many variables to be able to make a definitive call this early in the season and the first month clearly demonstrated that the team is fallible. The bullish expectations are encouraging for a team that has long languished as an underdog, but perennially pessimistic Seattle fans know better than anyone not to count their chickens before they hatch.

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