Mariners fans running out of arguments as AL MVP race swings against Cal Raleigh

For much of the summer, it felt like the Seattle Mariners were watching history unfold through the bat and mitt of Cal Raleigh.

The team’s hard-hitting catcher, affectionately dubbed “Big Dumper,” had muscled his way into the heart of the AL MVP race, going toe-to-toe with none other than two-time winner Aaron Judge. When Judge landed on the injured list in late July with a flexor strain in his right elbow, Mariners fans dared to believe Raleigh’s first MVP award was no longer just a dream but a likely outcome, as long as he kept swinging at the record-setting pace that had carried Seattle’s offense.

But baseball will always be humbling. Since July, Raleigh has cooled noticeably, batting just .203/.323/.485, while Judge has stormed back in full superstar fashion. Over his last 18 games, Judge has torched opposing pitchers with a 1.311 OPS and eight home runs, a stretch that has once again made him the overwhelming betting favorite to claim the hardware.

Mariners’ Cal Raleigh fading from AL MVP race as Aaron Judge surges again

For Mariners fans, the scenario of Judge sidelined while Raleigh runs away with the race — has quickly flipped into a sobering reality.

That’s not to say Raleigh doesn’t still have a case. As Mookie Betts recently pointed out on MLB Network, MVP shouldn’t be reduced to a slugging contest. Host Greg Amsinger echoed that sentiment, reminding viewers that the Hank Aaron Award already exists to honor pure offensive dominance, while the MVP should reflect total value.

By that measure, Raleigh’s candidacy shines. He hasn’t just powered Seattle’s lineup with career-best numbers, he’s also carried the immense responsibility of guiding one of baseball’s top pitching staffs from behind the plate. The complication, of course, is that Seattle’s rotation and bullpen have turned in one of their most disappointing seasons in the past three years, which undercuts the narrative of Raleigh’s impact.

Judge, of course, is Judge. The Yankees captain is putting together another monster season, slashing .325/.449/.677 with 48 home runs and 102 RBIs. Raleigh, meanwhile, has slugged 54 home runs and driven in 115 while carrying a .244/.359/.577 line. The counting stats scream MVP, but the gap in batting average, on-base percentage, and the sheer aura of Judge’s dominance make it difficult for voters to turn away from the familiar face of the award.

At the end of the day, Mariners fans may have to concede what once felt unthinkable: this award might slip through Raleigh’s hands.

Yet the conversation itself speaks volumes about the kind of season he has put together. MVP or not, Cal Raleigh has authored one of the most historic years in Mariners history — a campaign that cements him as more than just a fan favorite, but as a cornerstone of a team still chasing its first championship. And while Judge may take the trophy, nothing takes away from the fact that 2025 will forever be remembered in Seattle as the year the Big Dumper stormed into the national spotlight.