Mariners fans need to hear a dire warning about the team’s hot September

The Seattle Mariners are living every fan’s dream right now. After decades of heartbreak and near-misses, they’ve finally claimed an AL West crown and secured the luxury of a first-round bye in the postseason.

It feels like sweet vindication to watch this team not only dominate but also lock down home-field advantage in the Division Series. T-Mobile Park is set to host October baseball on its biggest stage yet, with a rested roster and a roaring crowd behind it. On the surface, this is everything Mariners fans could have hoped for.

But baseball can humble even the hottest clubs, and history tells us that Seattle’s current situation might not be as golden as it looks. The double-edged sword of a first-round bye is real. While it rewards dominance, it often erases momentum. In the Wild Card era, teams that get the extra rest frequently stumble out of the gates when they finally return to play, while their opponents come in battle-tested and sharp from a high-pressure series. That’s the warning Mariners fans need to consider: the same red-hot surge that has carried this team through September could be muted by the layoff that looms ahead.

Mariners’ September surge comes with a hidden October risk

The Mariners went into their final series against the Los Angeles Dodgers 17-5 for the month of September, good for a .773 winning percentage — the kind of heater that feels like destiny. They’ve joined rare company in doing so, becoming just the 27th team in MLB history to put together a September this hot.

And yet, when you dig into the history, the outlook is sobering. Of the 26 teams that came before them, 11 went on to reach the World Series, and none have done it since 1952. That’s a staggering drought that underscores the random and unforgiving nature of postseason baseball. Back in 1952, the path was far simpler, with teams advancing directly from the regular season to the Fall Classic. Seattle, by contrast, will have to survive two playoff rounds just to get there.

It’s important to note that this hot stretch isn’t a fluke. The Mariners’ roster is firing on all cylinders — power bats are slugging, the bullpen is shutting doors, and the rotation has been dealing. This is the version of the Mariners that the front office envisioned when it built this group, and fans shouldn’t dismiss how impressive this run has been. But October needs to be considered as a reset button. No matter how many wins pile up in September, no matter how dominant the Mariners look against AL West rivals, none of it guarantees that same fire will carry into a best-of-five series.

So while Mariners fans should savor every bit of this magical ride, they’d also be wise to brace for the reality of October baseball. A first-round bye may be a reward, but it comes with rust as the price. The Mariners can absolutely be the team that flips the script. But until the games begin again, it’s fair to temper the celebration with caution.