Mariners fans must not stress over Yankees' Gerrit Cole replacement hysteria

There is panic on the streets of New York, where the shock of Yankees ace Gerrit Cole needing Tommy John surgery is a long way away from wearing off. To merely call it "bad news" would be the understatement of not just the century, but the millennium.

As for what this has to do with the Seattle Mariners, "nothing, really" is the most honest answer. But unlike the relationship between you and your father's, brother's, nephew's, cousin's former roommate, it's not absolutely nothing either.

Especially since Luis Gil won't be around to pick up the slack for Cole like he did in 2024, there is mounting pressure on the reigning AL champs to do something to replace the 2023 AL Cy Young Award winner in their rotation. Speculation on who they could trade for is rampant, which might lead Mariners fans to wonder if the event that leads to a Luis Castillo trade has finally arrived.

Don't count on it, though.

A Castillo trade to the Yankees is unworkable

In a column about what the Yankees can and can't do to replace the 34-year-old Cole, ESPN's Buster Olney makes the case that they won't be able to do an impact trade until the summer market opens up.

The one and only mention of the Mariners and Castillo reads like this: "Likewise, in the AL West, the Mariners have so far clung to their starting pitchers, like Luis Castillo, but that could change if Seattle sinks in the standings."

This probably shouldn't be taken as confirmation that Castillo, a three-time All-Star ace in his own right, is wholly unavailable. But it was only last month that Adam Jude of the Seattle Times characterized a Castillo trade as being "less likely now than it was early in the winter,” and it's fair to assume that is only more true now.

For one thing, George Kirby's shoulder inflammation has rendered Seattle's rotation an arm short as the club's March 27 opener approaches. For another, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic indicated in December indicated that the Mariners would only move Castillo if the return made the team better.

It is hard to fathom how the Mariners could get such a return from the Yankees. They are not flush with spare talent, and a deal centered on the kind of young, controllable hitter Seattle would presumably need to get back would have serious issues for both sides.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Anthony Volpe are presumably off-limits for New York, while the Mariners have serious reasons to be wary of outfield prospects Jasson Domínguez (a poor left fielder who can't hit lefties) and Spencer Jones (36.8 K% at Double-A in 2024).

The Mariners hypothetically had an incentive to clear the $72.45 million they owe Castillo through 2027 at one point, but less so now. Whereas the savings could have been re-invested into, say, Alex Bregman or Pete Alonso once upon a time, those ships and others carrying star free agents have sailed.

Don't throw a drowning rival a lifeline

Let's otherwise not lose sight of the reality that the Mariners and Yankees are, in fact, rivals. Not divisional rivals, maybe, but both will begin 2025 with their eyes on the American League pennant.

To this end, they'll basically be starting out on equal footing. According to FanGraphs, the Yankees have a 12.7 percent chance of going to the World Series and the Mariners are only a tick behind at 10.4 percent. It's unclear what these percentages were prior to seemingly the Yankees' entire roster falling apart, but Mariners fans should be pumping their fists at how small the gap is now.

As Olney alluded to, there may come a point in 2025 when the Mariners will have to seriously consider moving Castillo. Yet even setting aside whether the Yankees were to get involve in such a scenario, it cannot be stressed enough that it is strictly hypothetical and not even especially likely.

For now, the Mariners' focus should be on playing good baseball. And come May 12-14 and July 8-10, it should specifically be on playing good baseball against a Yankees team that will at least be missing Cole, and possibly won't have Gil or Giancarlo Stanton either.