Mariners fans can't blame East Coast Bias boogeyman for Cal Raleigh's AL MVP loss

Cal Raleigh is not the American League MVP, and we've already said our piece on how it hints at a lack of imagination among the BBWAA members who cast votes for the award. They leaned on an overly literal interpretation of "valuable" in tabbing Aaron Judge as the AL MVP instead.

Whatever you do, just don't chalk it up to East Coast Bias. Because if you do, you'll inevitably run afoul of numbers that don't add up.

The AL MVP race between Raleigh and Judge really was close in the end. There were 30 writers who cast votes, and 17 of them cast first-place votes for Judge while 13 went instead for Raleigh. As such, we came pretty close to getting co-MVPs for the first time since Willie Stargell and Keith Hernandez shared the NL MVP in 1979.

East Coast Bias doesn't work as an explanation for why Cal Raleigh lost the AL MVP to Aaron Judge

If it was East Coast Bias that swung the race to Judge, you would expect it to be plainly evident in the data. Close your eyes, and you can just about see it... ah yes, all the East Coast and Eastern time zone writers checked the box for Judge, while everyone else checked it for Raleigh. Curses, foiled again by the New York Yankees' outsized influence and East Coasters' unwillingness to stay up late to watch West Coast teams!

In reality, the breakdown of the votes doesn't tell a neat and tidy story. If anything, Larry Stone of The Seattle Times noted on X that BBWAA members in the Eastern time zone actually split their votes, whereas Western time zone voters went heavily for Raleigh:

Whatever this is, it isn't East Coast Bias. And the picture shifts again if we break down the votes by which American League division the local BBWAA chapter adheres to:

• AL East: 5-5 split
• AL Central: 7-3 for Judge
• AL West: 5-5 split

What we have here is two genuinely conflicted parties sandwiched around an unlikely throng of Judge stans. Look even closer, and the only clean sweeps for Judge from AL Central voters were in Chicago and Minnesota. That may not be the work of bias so much as trauma, as Judge's career OPS against the White Sox and Twins is 1.452 and 1.195, respectively.

Either way, what's really notable is that the New York chapter of the BBWAA did not go all-in on Judge. Ronald Blum of The Associated Press voted for Judge, but Tyler Kepner of The Athletic voted for Raleigh. In explaining his vote, he even brought up an interesting point about Raleigh's value that had nothing to do with how he launched 60 homers as a switch-hitting catcher:

"His first-half production was especially important, as in guiding a rotation battered by injuries and propping up a struggling lineup, Raleigh put Seattle in position to make the necessary late-July trades to fuel a run to the division title."

Tyler Kepner

It is a fair point to make, as Raleigh almost singlehandedly kept the Mariners afloat with a 1.011 OPS and 38 homers before the All-Star break. It shows just how deep you can get into the narrative of Raleigh's 2025 season, even if it still wasn't enough to overcome Judge's (admittedly ridiculous) numbers for a Yankees squad that won more games than the Mariners.

All told, the best explanation for how Judge beat Raleigh in the AL MVP race is also the simplest one: more voters thought his season was more deserving. It may be unimaginative, but it's perfectly rational and not at all indicative of any kind of conspiracy.