Mariners fans are getting fed outrageous expectations for Kade Anderson's ETA

The hype surrounding Kade Anderson isn’t the problem. The rush order attached to it is.

We hear “sooner than later” and immediately start speed-running the development timeline. The twist is this isn’t just coming from the usual prospect hype machine — it’s coming from inside the house.

Mariners player development director Justin Toole told Baseball America that Anderson’s performance will dictate the timeline, but he also made the expectation loud enough to hear: the club anticipates it “sooner than later.” And once that kind of language is out there, it doesn’t take long for the conversation to jump tracks. 

Mariners quietly fueled a dangerous Kade Anderson debut narrative

ESPN basically hit the nitro button, with Jesse Rogers floating the idea that Anderson could be “a postseason factor — this October,” while tossing out Max Fried as an MLB comp and using Paul Skenes as the pace comparison.

And that’s when it goes from fun hype to a real pump-the-brakes moment. Anderson is the type of polished college arm who can move fast. ESPN’s point is that the sport is way more willing now to fast-track big-time college arms, and evaluators like Anderson’s four-pitch mix enough to think he mostly just needs reps in the upper minors.

Skenes moved quickly, but didn’t exactly teleport. He pitched in the minors immediately after getting drafted in 2023, got the innings, got the routine, and the professional ramp. Anderson didn’t throw a pro pitch in 2025 — the Mariners shut him down and made the priority about building him up physically. In fact, the plan was explicitly about getting him stronger, adding weight, and setting up his endurance for the first full pro season. 

That context matters, because it reframes what “soon” should actually mean for Seattle.

The Mariners aren’t scrambling for any warm body who can survive five innings. When this team is healthy, the rotation is already a competitive advantage. That’s why the smarter play with Anderson has always been boring: deliberate workload ramp, clean development checkpoints, and zero pressure to make him a savior on a rushed timeline. 

And if you want the most telling reality check, MLB Pipeline’s public-facing ETA on Anderson sits at 2027. That doesn’t mean he can’t beat it — prospects do it all the time — but it does tell you what a reasonable, responsible baseline looks like when you’re not drunk on comps.

Now, could the chaos scenario happen? Sure. If Seattle’s rotation gets hit with the kind of injury run similar to last season, you don’t get to pretend need won’t influence decisions. And if Anderson shows up, dominates the upper minors, and forces the conversation? Great problem to have.

But treating “Skenes speedrun” as anything close to the default is how you end up disappointed.

Let’s keep the energy, just aim it in the right direction. The goal isn’t to see Kade Anderson as fast as possible. It’s to see him when he’s ready — and then keep seeing him, every fifth day.