Mariners fans are already buying what ESPN is selling about playoff rotation

There was a time not long ago when the Seattle Mariners’ starting rotation was a source of doubt rather than dominance in national circles. Analysts picked apart the inconsistencies, pointed to injuries, and wondered if the group that was once the backbone of Seattle’s identity had finally cracked. 

Every outing was scrutinized. Was Luis Castillo still the ace he was billed to be? Could Bryce Miller and George Kirby handle the load of expectation after early-season injuries? These were fair questions, and they left Mariners fans defending a staff that simply hadn’t put it all together yet.

ESPN now ranks Mariners rotation among MLB’s October elites

Now, fast-forward to late September, and the tone has shifted dramatically. ESPN has officially elevated the Mariners’ rotation into Tier 1 of their playoff rankings, slotting them third overall behind only the Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies. It’s the kind of national validation Mariners fans have been craving, and it comes just as Seattle positions itself for a postseason run. 

According to ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel, the Mariners’ arms are a fascinating study in resilience and refinement.

"The Mariners could be higher within this tier if Kirby and Miller hadn’t both regressed this season. On the other hand, Gilbert and Woo continue to improve and are among the top handful of pitchers I evaluated for this exercise.

Gilbert is especially interesting, as his strikeout rate has spiked this season even though his fastball velocity slipped 1.2 mph and he also threw his heater more often. There isn’t a blinking red light to explain how this happened, just a handful of subtle adjustments…that seemed to have maximized his outcomes given his unique traits and adjustability."

Kiley McDaniel

It’s an analysis that highlights both the pitfalls and the promise of Seattle’s staff — the setbacks of regression offset by the breakthroughs of subtle evolution.

And the numbers tell an even more compelling story. Month to month, Seattle’s rotation has been as streaky as any in baseball:

• March/April: 12th in fWAR
• May: 18th in fWAR
• June: 29th in fWAR
• July: 3rd in fWAR
• August: 21st in fWAR
• September: 4th in fWAR

The pattern might seem chaotic, but it speaks to a rotation that bends without breaking, adjusting its way through adversity. Most impressive, their 6.5 strikeout-to-walk ratio in September is the best in MLB by a wide margin, a stat that screams playoff readiness.

Of course, one question lingers: Bryan Woo’s health. A potential IL stint has been floated after he left his start in Houston last Friday with tightness in his right pec, but Mariners GM Justin Hollander said Tuesdsay there are "zero plans" for that as of now. Even if Woo does have to go on the IL, he could return for Game 2 of the ALDS should Seattle hold the No. 2 seed.

That kind of timeline offers a reminder that this rotation isn’t just about one arm — it’s about a group that has weathered storms all year and still come out looking like a legitimate postseason force.