Mariners' Colt Emerson timing looks even better after Griffin, McGonigle contracts

It's been two weeks since the Mariners did that out-of-the-blue $95 million deal with Colt Emerson. It's a reach to say it's already aging well, yet Seattle fans should definitely be grateful that the team did it before Konnor Griffin and Kevin McGonigle got their bags.

Last week, Griffin inked a deal with the Pirates worth $140 million over nine years. It looked on the heavy side for a generally unproven player until Wednesday, when the Tigers upped the ante with an eight-year, $150 million deal with McGonigle.

There are clear commonalities between Emerson, Griffin and McGonigle. All three now being very well paid is obviously one of them, though also downstream of the fact that all three are shortstops who, at least for now, still rank among MLB Pipeline's top 10 prospects.

Look at these facts a certain way, and you might discern that the Mariners' $95 million pact with Emerson is already a bargain. But that's where the "not totally sure this is aging well" suspicion creeps in. Griffin and McGonigle have at least earned a call to The Show, while Emerson is still languishing at Triple-A. He's technically the least proven of the three.

Mariners' $95 million gamble on Colt Emerson almost resembles a safe bet

Out of these three, though, somebody had to walk before the other two could run. And if you're Jerry Dipoto, you have to be thrilled that it wasn't one of the other guys who went first.

That would have shifted the Mariners' position on Emerson from proactive to reactive, and possibly shifted the price point above $95 million. If he was worth that much as MLB Pipeline's No. 7 prospect even sans clear and relevant precedent, you have to figure that Griffin and/or McGonigle would have easily cleared $100 million if they had gone first. They are, after all, the league's No. 1 and No. 2 prospects, respectively.

As things stand, you won't hear us make the case that neither Griffin nor McGonigle deserved to get more than Emerson. Beyond being more proven, both of them frankly have higher ceilings. They're future MVP types in a way that Emerson just isn't.

Yet the Mariners' obvious faith in Emerson is hardly unfounded. He checks all the boxes for Dipoto, as he's both a good human being and just a really well-rounded ballplayer. As SoDo Mojo's Paul Taylor recently argued, the hope for Emerson is that he can basically be the 2023 version of J.P. Crawford on an annual basis.

That's a pretty high floor, and Dipoto is out there hinting that the Mariners plan to take advantage sooner rather than later. And if Emerson doesn't pan out, oh well. It's only $95 million.

After Griffin and McGonigle, it is now safe to suspect that there could have been a lot more on the line if the Mariners had waited.

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