Mariners catch unfortunate stray in Jeff Passan's Tarik Skubal trade note

There are regular fun ideas, and then there are "Hey, what if the Mariners traded for Tarik Skubal?" fun ideas. It would be a case of a determined contender making a blockbuster deal simply because it could, and also because opportunities to acquire back-to-back Cy Young Award winners don't often come around.

Alas, the chances of the Mariners trading for Skubal were already fading. It takes two to tango, after all, and there was buzz at the GM Meetings that the Detroit Tigers don't want to trade Skubal. They probably can't extend him either, to be sure, but it's not as if their choice is a binary one in which trading him or extending him are their only options.

The Mariners catch a stray in the latest update on the Tarik Skubal sweepstakes

As for what the Tigers will do with Skubal this winter, ESPN's Jeff Passan reported on Tuesday morning that there is "no consensus throughout the industry." Some still think the Tigers will cave and trade Skubal, but the Mariners may not be involved even if that is the case.

"The Mariners have the players but not the desire, even if Skubal did go to the University of Seattle," wrote Passan.

Wait, suddenly the Mariners have no desire to trade for Skubal? Wasn't it on November 5 when Buster Olney (notably also of ESPN) casually threw it out there that the Mariners were expected to go after Skubal? Did something happen between now and then?

Well, there is the Josh Naylor signing, which checked by far the biggest box the Mariners had to check this offseason. With him back at first base via a five-year, $92.5 million deal, Seattle has secured a crucial middle-of-the-order bat and a key presence in their clubhouse. It also lopped off a chunk of their offseason budget, which is purportedly in the $30-35 million range in terms of new salaries for 2026.

With Skubal projected by MLB Trade Rumors to earn $17.8 million in his final year of arbitration-eligibility in 2026, piggybacking signing Naylor and trading for Skubal would effectively wipe out Seattle's spending capacity. The result would be an impressive team, but also one with questions hanging over third base, second base, designated hitter and the bullpen. If the Mariners want a more ironclad roster, there are better ways forward.

Then again, this is probably overthinking it. Indeed, Olney never said the Mariners were interested in Skubal. He said they were expected to go after him, implying that other teams were looking at the Mariners and seeing them as a potential player for the ace lefty.

If so, it was a rational conclusion purely based on what the Mariners have to offer. They have eight prospects in MLB Pipeline's top 100, which isn't even counting recent graduate Cole Young and controllable arms like those belonging to Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller.

And yet, that the Mariners apparently have no desire to make the Tigers an offer they can't refuse is not a surprise. Even if they could secure an offseason win by trading for Skubal, he's much more of a want than a need. Re-signing Jorge Polanco and otherwise improving on the margins is the more boring way forward, but it may be the path of least resistance to the World Series berth that has evaded Seattle for long enough.