Mariners can trade for Byron Buxton only if Jerry Dipoto leaves his comfort zone

Byron Buxton as a trade deadline target for the Seattle Mariners? Sold. Let's shake on it and draw up the paperwork. The lineup could use another thunderous right-handed bat, so Jerry Dipoto absolutely should make this happen if he's up to doing something reckless for a change.

Look, Adam Jude of The Seattle Times wasn't wrong to shift the focus of the Mariners' trade aspirations to Buxton. The buzz in Seattle has mostly concerned starting pitching, whether it's subtracting from the current rotation or (by some miracle) adding Tarik Skubal to it. Jude effectively poured cold water on both ideas, which is for the best.

Hence the pitch that Dipoto's attention should be on Buxton, and why not?

Buxton's 162-game standards during the 2020s include a 134 OPS+, 43 home runs, 18 stolen bases and 6.4 rWAR. Put him alongside Julio Rodríguez and Randy Arozarena, and the Mariners suddenly have maybe their best outfield ever. Those are also the only righty bats in the everyday lineup, so Buxton would likewise provide extra protection against left-handed pitching.

As for the likelihood of a trade, the odds would seem to be in favor of it. The Twins blew up their roster last July and are headed toward another losing season. Buxton does have a no-trade clause, but the days of him insisting he wouldn't leave the Twin Cities have seemed to be over for a while now.

Where things get tricky, though, is in considering the sheer risk of trading for Buxton.

It's hard to imagine Jerry Dipoto liking the math of a trade for Byron Buxton

Buxton is, after all, a 32-year-old with a .309 career OBP, and whose proneness to injuries just keeps rearing its head. His $15.1 million salaries through 2028 are reasonable, yet would instantly make him one of Seattle's most well-paid players.

Dipoto, of course, is not one to shy away from trades, even if it means anteing up for stars. Just in the last few years, he's done blockbusters for Luis Castillo and Randy Arozarena, plus last year's deal for Josh Naylor and not one, but two deals for Eugenio Suárez.

Even so, the details of these deals hint at some level of restraint. Dipoto basically bought low on Suárez in 2022 and on Arozarena in 2024, while Naylor and Suárez were both pending free agents when they came to Seattle last year. The Castillo trade offers the cleanest precedent for a Buxton trade, and even "The Rock" differed in that he was still in his 20s and arbitration-eligible.

Baseball Trade Values estimates the outfielder's surplus value at a sturdy $33.8 million, and the dearth of right-handed bats will allow the Twins to drive a hard bargain in negotiations. As other teams are also going to covet Buxton, it would almost certainly cost the Mariners multiple top-100 prospects to get him. It would be the Castillo trade all over again, except with way more volatility.

Would Dipoto make a deal like that even knowing the risks? For that matter, would John Stanton greenlight the addition of another big salary while the team is already just $3 million short of what it spent in 2025?

One doesn't want to be a Negative Nancy and come down firmly on "no" for both questions. This is a World Series or bust year, and the Mariners have to know as well as anyone that the 2027 season is not a given amid so much labor strife. So, what the heck. "YOLO," as the cool kids once said.

Still, we'll put it this way: We'll believe in a Mariners trade for Byron Buxton only when we see it.

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