Mariners' 2025 PECOTA projections should force Jerry Dipoto into action

The team is closer to a playoff return than one might think.

Oakland Athletics v Seattle Mariners
Oakland Athletics v Seattle Mariners | Christopher Mast/GettyImages

Every year, Baseball Prospectus releases their PECOTA projections for the upcoming season. PECOTA, which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, is simply their in-house way of trying to predict what next season's standings will look like using each player's past performance and a Monte Carlo simulation. So what did they have to say about the Mariners' 2025?

Well, Seattle has more of a chance than one might think. If you take a look at the projected full-season standings, you can see that the Mariners won 86 games in the simulation. More importantly, they have a 57.9% chance to make it to the playoffs, which are better odds than teams like the Royals, Guardians, and Brewers, all of whom played October baseball in 2024.

There are two ways to interpret these results. On one hand, it's encouraging that, even with the lack of proactivity from the front office this offseason, Seattle is still very much in the running to earn a Wild Card spot or even win the division. Furthermore, while divisions like the AL and NL Central are heavily skewed in favor of one team, the top three teams in the AL West are pretty close.

The Rangers' performance largely depends on the health of their middle infield. Without Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker, Houston has its weakest roster in arguably a decade. Texas and Houston are projected for just 89 and 87 wins, meaning the Mariners would only have to outperform their projections slightly to have a real chance of being crowned kings of the division, something that hasn't happened since 2001.

On the other hand, this should be a wake-up call and not a reason for the organization to rest on its laurels. If they want a better chance of outperforming current estimates and getting closer to the 90-win mark, they'll have to get another impact bat.

They've made two infield signings thus far — one a brand new face and one an old face with a new role, which essentially fills out all of the lineup's existing gaps, but it's yet to be seen whether these moves will truly make a difference. The team will also be getting a full season of Randy Arozarena and Victor Robles, giving them one of the more talented outfields in MLB. But there are still questions about the offensive capabilities of Mitch Garver, the health of J.P. Crawford, and how Donovan Solano will hit in the most pitcher-friendly park in MLB.

There are still rumors of the Mariners making a trade involving their ace that would hopefully bring back more offensive depth and clear up some room on the payroll. The team could also be active at next year's trade deadline, something they executed exceptionally well in 2024. If not, will this roster be enough as is to get them to October?

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