Mapping Ryan Sloan's path to the Mariners' 2027 Opening Day rotation

For the Mariners, most of the media attention for the 2024 MLB Draft was focused on ambidextrous first-round pick Jurrangelo Cijntje. However, Seattle's second-round pick, Ryan Sloan, has taken over as the more promising talent of the two. He was given a signing bonus of $3 million, more than 11 first-round picks, and while Cijntje was sent to St. Louis in exchange for Brendan Donovan, Sloan is still around.

Following Kade Anderson's debut and likely inclusion on the team's Opening Day roster for 2027, Sloan will soon take over as the organization's top prospect and rightfully so. He posted a 3.73 ERA with a 3.25 FIP and a 30.9% strikeout rate across 101.1 innings in Double-A this year, impressive numbers and enough to set him up for a call-up next year.

Despite his strong numbers, there's a slew of even more capable arms in front of him in the rotation, so what would need to happen for him to finally make the jump to the majors?

A 2027 debut for Ryan Sloan would require a few big preliminary steps

In a recent article for MLB.com, Daniel Kramer stated that Sloan should report to camp as No. 6 on the depth chart yet the Mariners already have six starters: Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, George Kirby, Kade Anderson, Bryce Miller, and Emerson Hancock. Does this suggest that one of the above players will lose their spot in the rotation or on the team?

If this is the case, a trade is the most likely way to clear roster space. Seattle's starting pitching depth has been sought after over the past few offseasons and though the front office has been firm about retaining them, this winter might call for a more aggressive approach to retooling the roster for next season. Other than Bryan Woo and Kade Anderson, the other four pitchers all have at least some incentive to be moved. Kirby and Miller have been trending in the wrong direction, Hancock could be a sell-high asset, and 2027 will be Gilbert's final year under club control.

Even if the Mariners manage to offload one spot in the rotation and move Sloan into the sixth spot on the depth chart, it doesn't make his path to getting the ball every five days much clearer. Seattle already tried a six-man rotation with subpar results so it's unlikely that they'll "piggy-back" off of that idea.

Instead, two more things will have to happen. Sloan will have to post very strong numbers in spring training. Once he has proven his ability to be a viable starter against stiffer competition, he'll have to wait for someone on the big league roster to go down with an injury. The team has lost starters in spring training each of the past few years and it'd need to happen again if Sloan has a chance at starting the season in Seattle.

If he misses his initial window to be on the Opening Day roster, there's still a way for him to get called up later in the year. Aside from a subsequent IL stint for one of the current starters, a more pessimistic scenario could be another losing season for the Mariners in which they decide to sell off another one of their starters at the deadline, creating an opportunity for Sloan similar to the one Kade was given in 2026.

The Mariners could also move someone to the bullpen, something they've tried in the past with Emerson Hancock, but it's not a particularly common practice for them and would return less value than a trade.

Sloan will be just 21 years old by the time the team reports to Peoria, so he and the organization have plenty of time to figure things out and at worst, he should comfortably have a spot once the likes of Gilbert and Kirby hit the open market, which could be why he's still slated to have an ETA of 2028. The concern isn't about whether he has what it takes to compete in the majors but instead, whether there will be room for him in baseball's best rotation.

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