Logan Gilbert is giving Mariners every reason to back off contract pursuit

The Mariners' core hasn't gotten off to the best start. Cal Raleigh has gone completely cold, Julio Rodríguez is going through his annual warm-up, and Josh Naylor has failed to recapture the magic of last year. Luckily for the lineup, other players like Cole Young, Brendan Donovan, and Randy Arozarena have stepped up in the interim, but it's hard not to notice that Seattle's most recognizable names have yet to live up to the hype this season.

In the rotation, things have actually been pretty good. Emerson Hancock finally seems to have put the pieces together while Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo, and George Kirby continue to post solid numbers. Unfortunately, the same can't be said for Logan Gilbert, who was expected to lead the team's pitching staff this season. His first two starts have been shaky and his struggles may close the door on a long-term future with the team.

Logan Gilbert no longer seems as dominant, and it may preclude the Mariners from offering him an extension

In his two starts for the team so far, he has given up 12 hits, eight earned runs, and three walks in 10.2 innings. Because of the small sample, these numbers by themselves aren't enough to condemn a pitcher as "washed," but a closer look at his underlying numbers raises some clear red flags.

The clearest step down is his velocity, which was already an issue last year. In 2024, his fastball had an average velocity of 96.6 mph. In 2026, it's down to 95.0 mph. His slider, which was his most valuable pitch by run value in 2023 and 2024, has been below average ever since. The chase rate on his splitter has dropped to just 30.8 and has already found itself mistakenly in the strike zone.

Can it be that Gilbert is still nursing the after-effects of an injury? Or is there another factor that's holding him back from returning to the level he was at two seasons ago? It's difficult to say at this time and for all we know, he could turn up the heat, giving the Mariners a solid 30 starts from here on out.

But when it comes to making a decision on which of their young starters they'd like to extend, if any, it's easy to see why Seattle may not be compelled to get a deal done at this time. The burden of proof has fallen back on the shoulders of Logan Gilbert and although he won't be a free agent until 2028, he'll have to prove his worth long before then if he wants to continue being a Mariner.