In 2022, it was Aaron Judge. In 2023, it was Shohei Ohtani. In 2024, Juan Soto has become the free agent everyone is holding their breath for. When there's a generational talent on the market that would make all 30 teams significantly better, front offices wait to see if they'll be the lucky ones to take him home before seriously committing resources elsewhere.
Some teams, like the Mariners, aren't even in the running to begin with, but their own priority signings are likely waiting to entertain offers from elsewhere, making the 26-year-old Dominican phenom a roadblock for the rest of the market. Luckily, things should start chugging along soon.
It has been reported that Soto has officially received offers from five teams: the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, Red Sox, and Blue Jays. Unsurprisingly, all five of these teams are in large markets and on the East Coast (with the exception of the Dodgers).
However, more teams could toss their hat in the ring in the days to come. Now that the clock has started and pressure has been applied, Brendan Kuty of The Athletic has stated he expects offers to come in rounds with the final decision being made around the Winter Meetings.
Mariners Rumors: Juan Soto decision will get free agent market moving
Once Soto and other top free agents like Ma Fried and Corbin Burnes finally decide which nine-figure deal to sign, the race for more affordable free agents will begin. Nearly a month after the conclusion of the World Series, the only free agent signing of note has been Yusei Kikuchi's three-year, $63 million contract with the Angels. All other deals have been for less than $15 million (or have featured players re-signing with their previous teams), illustrating just how much of a bottleneck Soto has created.
Seattle has been linked to two free agents from New York, a slugging first baseman and a middle infielder, but has understandably been omitted from any serious conversation regarding the pricier names. It would go against the grain for the Mariners to extend a contract longer than a few years, and the only time in recent history they've made a deal larger than $100 million was to sign Robbie Ray to a five-year, $115 million contract. Even then, he only managed one season of play and two seasons on the payroll before being shipped off to San Francisco. Players like Christian Walker, Hyeseong Kim, and Paul Goldschmidt seem like more realistic targets for the M's this offseason.
One name that has captured the attention of front offices everywhere is Roki Sasaki. Because of the limited size of his contract due to international posting rules, he's a seemingly perfect fit for any small market team with great pitching development. With his exceptional stuff and outstanding professional pedigree, the Mariners will have to make a compelling case to pry him away from the grasps of other major-league clubs, but they could already be a frontrunner in the race.
It's possible that the roster won't look very different in 2025 from how it was in 2024. Without a meaningful increase in payroll or big steps forward from existing players, the Mariners may struggle to break into October once again. If the front office does decide to make a move, it likely won't happen until the bigger pieces have been taken off of the board, though. So we'll be waiting on Soto to sign the dotted line before the real action can begin for Mariners fans.