Julio Rodríguez's annual hot streak has arrived way ahead of schedule for Mariners

Julio Rodríguez had already developed a reputation as a slow starter in 2022 and 2023, but Seattle Mariners fans hadn't seen anything yet. He got warm at a glacial pace in 2024, ultimately operating with an OPS below .700 for all but 17 of the club's 162 games.

To say that Rodríguez has flipped the script in 2025 would be putting it mildly. He is fresh off clubbing his 10th home run on Tuesday, putting him exactly halfway to his total from last year with four months still to go.

This is more or less what the Mariners were hoping for in spring training. They deliberately made a point of getting Rodríguez more reps in the Cactus League, with the idea being that it would allow the 24-year-old to bypass his customary early-season slump.

Julio Rodríguez is off to his best ever start, and he's only getting hotter

It is now safe for the Mariners to declare victory on this plan, as the numbers that J-Rod has through the club's first 53 games mark the best start to a season he's had in his first four years:

• 2022: .740 OPS, 6 HR
• 2023: .743 OPS, 9 HR
• 2024: .618 OPS, 3 HR
• 2025: .750 OPS, 10 HR

This is encouraging just on its face, and even more so given that Rodríguez's overall numbers are being fueled by a hot May that resembles his ignition as a star in 2022...but with a twist.

It was as the eventual AL Rookie of the Year that Rodríguez went off for a .866 OPS and six home runs in May of '22. He's on a similar heater this May with a .841 OPS and six homers, with the difference being the frequency with which he's striking out. He has fanned only 11 times all month, well below the 29 strikeouts he racked up in May of 2022. His 11.3 strikeout percentage is the lowest he's had in any month, ever.

“His at-bats have been great,” manager Dan Wilson said earlier in May, per Tim Booth of The Seattle Times. “He’s finding the barrel more often. I think he’s been laying off pitches out of the zone and he’s really locking into where his zone is right now and being aggressive in that zone. He has hit some balls really hard.”

Everything Wilson said then checks out now. Rodríguez isn't necessarily swinging less often, but his chase rates against fastballs, breaking balls and offspeed pitches are all down relative to April. He's also making more contact, with instances of him using the opposite field on pitches away from him feeling especially emblematic of his improvements.

The swing-and-miss in Rodríguez's game used to be the No. 1 thing holding him back from ascending to the next level of MLB superstardom. And even then, all the whiffs could only hold him back for so long. He was a second-half hitter in each of his first three seasons, posting an OPS north of .900 after the break in 2022 and 2023 and even salvaging a .818 OPS last year.

If it's a question of what this new and improved version of Rodríguez could be capable of, he is technically on pace for 31 home runs and 5.6 fWAR. Both figures map nicely onto his outputs from 2022 and 2023, when he was an MVP contender in addition to an All-Star and Silver Slugger.

It's hard not to think even bigger, however. Because even if we don't yet know if 2025 will prove to be Rodríguez's best season, this is the most complete version of him we've yet seen and certainly the earliest he's started to produce like his best self.

If those two trends don't bode well, then nothing does.