Josh Naylor trade created a crucial hurdle to Mariners re-signing him

Josh Naylor has been even better than advertised since donning a Mariners uniform. After being traded to the team, he has posted a 137 OPS+ with 18 stolen bases. He has accumulated 2.2 rWAR as a Mariner, more than any other full season in his career besides 2023.

The value he has brought to the team culminated in a postseason-clinching double, and he looks more than ready to carry positive momentum into the playoffs. Unfortunately, the Mariners may be fighting an uphill battle if they want to retain his talents into next year and beyond.

It's no secret that Naylor is headed for free agency at the conclusion of the season. He won't come cheap, as some are estimating that he'll get a nine-figure contract, but there are some systems in place to give teams a fighting chance to retain their best players. Typically, teams are able to make qualifying offers to try and convince players to stay. If the offer is rejected, then the team gets an additional draft pick, typically somewhere in the first two rounds.

However, because Naylor hasn't been on their roster all season, the Mariners won't be able to reap either of these benefits.

As a trade acquisition, Josh Naylor is ineligible for a qualifying offer, guaranteeing that he'll hit the open market

Qualifying offers aren't accepted all too frequently but it has happened, 14 times to be exact. Most of the time, teams make qualifying offers while being fully aware that they have no chance of retaining their highly sought-after free agent, but they're more than happy to receive an additional early draft pick to make up for it.

This is especially beneficial for teams with tighter payrolls that depend more on developing young talent than shelling out millions on free agents every winter. The Mariners fall in that category and would've definitely benefited from an additional pick, especially given how good their recent prospect crop has been.

Furthermore, aside from his outstanding second-half numbers, Naylor being ineligible for a qualifying offer also means that whatever team does sign him doesn't have to worry about the penalty of losing a draft pick, another crucial consideration. He is as much of a free agent as a player can be in this day and age.

All of this means that Seattle will have 29 competitors to sign Naylor to a long-term deal. Internally, how much stock the front office places in his performance this year will likely be swayed by how he performs in the postseason, as well as any potential concerns they have behind the scenes with health, overall chemistry, and other aspects that haven't been made public.

He has endeared himself to fans in a short time, though they have been clamoring for an offensively impactful first baseman for years. Josh Naylor is the team's first hope at the position in quite some time, but it still might not be enough to overcome the self-imposed financial hurdles of a risk-averse franchise like the Mariners.