Jim Bowden's contract projections blindside Mariners' hopes for a Teruaki Sato splash

For some, the offseason can be as or more exciting than the regular season. The uncertainty of what trades or free agent signings will go down during the winter creates plenty of conversation, even for teams like the Mariners that tend to be on the more dormant side.

This year, the pressure for Seattle to make impactful roster moves is even higher than normal given how disappointing 2026 was. There's no shortage of possible free agent targets or hypothetical trades that could return this team to postseason contention, but one potential game-changer that has been linked to the team is Japanese slugger Teruaki Sato. Unfortunately, based on his most recent contract projections, the Mariners could be priced out before the bidding even begins.

Jim Bowden believes that Teruaki Sato will be far too expensive of a free agent for the Mariners to pursue

Jim Bowden of The Athletic published the most recent iteration of his free agent contract predictions, where he ranked Sato as the third-best player in the class. Based on his numbers and position, Bowden compared his earning power to that of Alex Bregman and Matt Chapman, ultimately arriving at an estimate of $180 million over five years. This deal would already be on the higher end in terms of total value, and the average annual value of $36 million would be the sixth-highest among position players, exceeding Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($35.7 million) and Mike Trout ($35.5 million).

This would comfortably price Seattle and other small- and middle-market teams out of the picture. If the Mariners did sign him at that price tag, his deal would eclipse the extensions given to Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez (not including the five years of player options), an unlikely event since both players are homegrown talents with more upside.

Normally, this would dash any hopes of the Mariners being interested in NPB's most alluring free agent, but it's important to remember that Bowden has a tendency to overestimate the value of free agents. Last year, he missed big on both Kazuma Okamoto and Munetaka Murakami, estimating that the latter would receive $160 million over six years instead of the $34 million over two years he ultimately received from the White Sox.

Bowden makes this mistake even with players who already have an established track record in MLB. In this year's free agent rankings, he projects Freddy Peralta to net $140 million over five years, giving him an AAV of $28 million, more than Tyler Glasnow, Max Fried, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. This is after he posted a 4.42 regular season ERA with a 4.28 FIP and an ugly start to the year with the Mets.

When it comes to Sato, there are a few things that have already come up as major concerns. There are already talks of his ability to remain on the left side of the infield and like Murakami, he may end up moving to first base or the outfield. Also like Murakami, he had a strikeout rate of 27% over his last two NPB seasons, so his offensive profile might be skewed towards a feast-or-famine approach that's reliant on his power production to compensate for a lower on-base percentage.

Though appealing, his scouting profile doesn't quite live up to Bowden's financial expectations, especially since MLB organizations tend to be a little more conservative with position players coming over from NPB. The largest one in recent history was Masataka Yoshida's five-year, $90 million contract with the Red Sox and he has already been relegated to a platoon bat.

It's not impossible, yet it's unlikely that Sato will actually end up signing a deal worth close to $200 million. His deal may be closer to Kazuma Okamoto's four-year, $60 million contract with the Blue Jays which would be more than affordable enough for Seattle to be a legitimate suitor. The front office will still have to put in the effort and put up the cash to do so but don't count them out of the running just yet.

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