Hype train for slugging Mariners prospect has gone off rails at Double-A

The Seattle Mariners’ farm system continues to earn accolades as one of the deepest and most exciting pipelines in baseball. But even in a system loaded with star potential, development isn’t always linear. And for top prospect Lazaro Montes, the jump to Double-A Arkansas has presented a real roadblock.

The 20-year-old slugger arrived in Arkansas with plenty of momentum, riding the high of a breakout first half that showcased his prodigious power and high ceiling. However, since joining the Travelers, Montes has struggled to adjust.

Lazaro Montes’ Double-A struggles reveal growing pains for Mariners

Over his last 24 games, Montes is slashing just .176/.265/.353 while striking out in a staggering 37.8 percent of his plate appearances. Fourteen of those games have come at Dickey-Stephens Park, a notoriously pitcher-friendly environment that’s known to swallow well-struck fly balls. While he’s still managed to muscle out seven home runs and 20 RBIs across 32 games at the level, the contact issues are starting to raise eyebrows.

It’s a stretch that brings to mind a word of caution issued earlier this season by The Athletic’s Keith Law:

“Early this season, he was struggling with contact, he was chasing stuff out of the zone again. He seems to have tightened that up. He’s been good in the (one) week he’s been in Double-A. I’d like to see that over a larger sample. The more that he controls the strike zone, the better the prospect that he is.”

Law’s assessment has aged well. The lack of zone control has been Montes’ most glaring issue since the promotion. And while it’s easy to hit the panic button when a top prospect stalls out, this is more likely a case of growing pains than a red flag. Montes is still just 20 years old, with time and talent on his side.

What’s not in question is the power. Montes can still change a game with one swing. The more pressing concern is his ability to make consistent contact and tighten up his approach, issues that are coachable and common for hitters his age.

Perspective matters here. Julio Rodríguez, one of several Mariners’ homegrown stars, obliterated Double-A pitching during his stint in Arkansas, slashing .362/.461/.546 with seven home runs and 26 RBIs in just 46 games. But that’s Julio. Not every top prospect can follow that path.

Cal Raleigh, now a cornerstone behind the plate in Seattle, had a much rougher ride in Double-A himself. He hit just .228 with a .296 OBP, though he also flashed power with seven home runs and 16 RBIs in 39 games. Montes’s current numbers, while not ideal, are still within the range of what we’ve seen from other Mariners prospects who eventually found success. It’s a reminder that early struggles don’t necessarily derail long-term potential.

The Mariners, for their part, are in no rush. With a system brimming with outfield talent and a big-league club already featuring stars, Seattle has the luxury of time. Montes will likely get another crack at Spring Training in 2026, and there’s every reason to believe that this is merely a temporary setback on what could still be a star trajectory.

In a farm system that has become synonymous with polish and potential, Montes’s current struggles serve as a reminder that even the best prospects hit speed bumps. What matters is how they respond.