Gabe Speier's disastrous spring could spell real trouble for Mariners bullpen

For fringe players on any team, spring training can be a mixed bag of results. Because it's closer to practice than it is a meaningful game, results don't matter as much as underlying data. Still, for players that are less established on a given roster, putting up strong numbers heading into the regular season can be a major confidence boost. Unfortunately, Gabe Speier falls into the other camp.

Gabe Speier is one of several Mariners relievers posting ghastly numbers leading up to Opening Day

His spring has been more concerning than one might hope for a potential high-leverage arm in Seattle's bullpen. His performance for Team USA in the WBC was subpar to say the least, giving up two home runs in 2.1 innings of work. His numbers in spring training have been similarly troubling over an equally small sample, especially since all three of his runs came in a single outing against the Cubs on March 21st.

Speier is not the only one struggling to find his footing this spring. Seattle sent top prospect Harry Ford to the Nationals in exchange for reliever Jose A. Ferrer, who has faced his own set of challenges thus far. Carlos Vargas, who had more innings pitched than any Seattle reliever other than Eduard Bazardo, is also at a 6.48 ERA over 8.1 innings.

In all fairness, pitching is inherently volatile, especially when it comes to short relief appearances. Furthermore, as stated earlier, players are typically using live at-bats in spring training as chances to experiment with new things and improve existing aspects of their play, so statistics like ERA and WHIP are hardly of the utmost importance.

But what do the more detailed numbers say about Speier?

Most importantly, his velocity still looks good with an average fastball velocity of 95.1 mph. A major driver behind his 2024 regression was the negative impacts on his velocity from a rotator cuff strain, limiting him to just 92.9 mph that year. So on the bright side, he's still throwing pretty hard. But it's not the only thing he has been doing well recently.

His walk and strikeout rates are also good. His 28.6 strikeout rate and 3.6 walk rate matter about as much as they can over a sample of just 14 batters faced. His chase rate of 46.0 also places him among the most elite performers in spring training this year. Finally, his average exit velocity is just 84.4 mph, landing him in the 96th percentile of pitchers.

If you look past the surface, a lot of what made Speier so effective for the Mariners last year is still intact. Of all the outstanding bullpen arms that got a chance to represent the United States in the WBC, his nomination to the team was well-earned. There are absolutely things that he must refine as he continues to get back into gear, but a few rough innings of pre-season pitching shouldn't be a cause for concern, at least not yet.

Nonetheless, Seattle will surely be keeping a close eye on their favorite southpaw reliever. The lifespan of a reliever in today's game is shorter than ever and a valuable arm one year can be forgettable the next. If he isn't able to turn things around by the time the regular season fully ramps up, the Mariners may once again be forced to find another lefty.