Former Mariner Jake Bauer's Red Sox deal could nix a Randy Arozarena landing spot

The 72 games that Jake Bauers spent with the Seattle Mariners in 2021 used to be a microcosm of his major league career. Now they're a mere footnote in a story that the Boston Red Sox have determined worthy of a $58 million bet.

The news, as first reported by ESPN's Jeff Passan, comes while Bauers is hot off becoming everyone's favorite underdog player on everyone's favorite underdog team. He led the Milwaukee Brewers with 26 home runs in the regular season, and then put his stamp on the NLCS with an MVP-winning performance opposite the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The 31-year-old's $58 million payday has to be some sort of record for a player with only 2.0 rWAR (including -0.2 rWAR as a Mariner) for his career. Moreover, Bauers is… kind of an odd fit for Boston? They seemed to need a righty-hitting outfielder. He's a lefty-hitting first base/DH type who is stretched as a left fielder.

Evidently, the Red Sox like the bat too much to care. And they have every right to feel that way. Though Bauers' ascent this year went higher than anyone could have expected, he did ultimately have a higher xwOBA than Junior Caminero, Kyle Schwarber and Freddie Freeman.

Red Sox's payroll and roster crunch may not leave room to lure Randy Arozarena from Mariners

As for what's next for the Red Sox, it's hard to imagine them following their splash on Bauers with another on Randy Arozarena.

They have been a popular speculative landing spot for the three-time All-Star, mostly owing to checking all the boxes. Beyond their apparent need for a righty-hitting outfielder, they also have a hitter-friendly home stadium and are, of course, an East Coast team. By all accounts, that's where Arozarena prefers to be.

Even before the Bauers deal, however, Adam Jude and Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times noted that the Red Sox had been sending out signals of limited payroll flexibility. That made for an awkward fit for Arozarena's price tag, which Scott Boras purportedly has in the $150 million range.

According to RosterResource, the Red Sox are now projected to spend $22 million more in 2027 than they did in 2026, and with a $268.7 million luxury tax payroll as well. We'll see what happens with the next CBA, but the latter figure would have put them in the second tier for penalties this season.

Earlier this week, Bob Nightengale of USA Today pitched a scenario in which the Red Sox traded Jarren Duran and then signed Arozarena. However, that made more sense before the Red Sox added a $14.5 million average salary for Bauers on top of Duran's projected $11.1 million salary. Even if they do trade Duran, the payroll will still be higher than it was at the start of the week.

As for what all this means for the Mariners… well, probably not a whole lot. They should want nothing to do with Duran. And while one less suitor for Arozarena theoretically works in favor of their odds of re-signing him, nobody really expects that to happen, right?

Ultimately, the thing to feel right now is happiness for Jake Bauers. His stint as a Mariner once looked like just another step on his way out of baseball. But today, he's a rich mother----er.

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