Fenway Park debut gives Lazaro Montes golden chance to pass his 1st Mariners test

Seattle Mariners fans will have to wait another day for Lazaro Montes. We know he's coming up from Triple-A Tacoma, but it won't be until rosters expand on Tuesday ahead of the second of three against the Red Sox at Fenway Park. Then the question will be what he can do, and there's no better place than Boston to find out if he's hiding any opposite-field potential.

Upon seeing the Green Monster out in left field, one's mind goes to what an advantage it is for pull-happy right-handed sluggers. Yet Fenway Park actually plays more favorably to left-handed hitters, particularly those who are capable of smacking doubles off that 37-foot target in left field.

This should be a test that the 21-year-old Montes can pass. He's a 6-foot-5, 210-pound lefty who's not lacking raw power, and the ability to go the other way with authority is clearly there. Yet when looking at his directional splits from his time with Tacoma, opposite-field hitting doesn't stand out as a strength:

Montes' overall .555 wOBA and .471 xwOBA on balls in play are compared to averages of .391 and .343 at the Triple-A level. This is to say he mashes for the most part, but not so much when he goes the other way to left field.

This is not necessarily a fatal flaw. Detroit Tigers rookie Kevin McGonigle, for example, is one of the best lefty hitters in baseball today, and he's pretty mid (.304 wOBA, .213 xwOBA) when he hits the ball to left field. It goes to show that oppo hitting is more of a nice-to-have.

Even so, the Mariners would obviously rather have any nice-to-haves Montes can offer. And in the context of Fenway Park, taking advantage of the Green Monster would show an ability to adapt to his environment. A hitter should use the Green Monster for the same reason George Mallory climbed Everest: Because it's there!

Lazaro Montes' natural swing is just fine for T-Mobile Park

What really matters in the long run, of course, is that Montes finds comfort at home in Seattle. And this is where there's at least one cause for concern.

T-Mobile Park is not a hitter-friendly stadium, and that's not just because of the marine layer. Something about the place inflates strikeout rates, and Montes strikes out enough as it is. Since he got the call to Double-A last summer, his strikeout rate has been tethered to the 30 percent threshold. Unless you're Munetaka Murakami or Kyle Schwarber, it's hard to fan that much and still be a capable major league hitter.

Still, Montes has enough raw power to play in the same productivity sandbox as those two in the majors. It should also work to his advantage in Seattle if he carries on as a pull-first hitter. When lefty hitters go oppo at T-Mobile Park, they have the 17th-best wOBA of any venue. When they pull, it's the seventh-best wOBA.

Regardless, now is not the time to put pressure on Montes to save a Mariners season that increasingly looks beyond saving. It's more so time for curiosity about what he can do, with a side of hope that there will be pleasant surprises.

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