FanGraphs' 2025 projections reveal intriguing Mariners wrinkle at first, second base

Mariners GM Justin Hollander has set the stage, declaring that utility player Dylan Moore will get the first crack at second base. On the surface, that sounds like a vote of confidence—a nod that Moore is the clubhouse leader for the job. But look closer, and you’ll see that the door isn’t fully shut.

Lurking in the shadows are Ryan Bliss and Leo Rivas, waiting for their opportunity. And then there’s highly-touted prospect Cole Young — biding his time in the wings, poised to challenge the field, possibly after the All-Star break if the club is still searching for stability at the position. The message? Moore may have the first shot, but the final say will come later.

Meanwhile, first base seems to be more of a closed case, at least according to the team. Donovan Solano is expected to take the short side of a platoon with Luke Raley, giving the impression that the situation is relatively set. But FanGraphs’ 2025 projections tell a different story — one that feels like a plot twist waiting to unfold.

Could Tyler Locklear make an impact for the Mariners in 2025?

According to their predictive models, prospect Tyler Locklear re-emerges as a legitimate factor, not only making the 26-man roster but also carving out a significant role at first base. In this scenario, Locklear takes more at-bats (105) at first than Solano (63) and becomes the second-most used first baseman behind Raley. That’s a far more aggressive shift than what Mariners brass is publicly signaling.

And it’s not just at first base where the projections challenge the narrative. At second base, FanGraphs sees Cole Young taking 164 at-bats — more than Bliss (98), Solano (49), and Rivas (21). While Moore still leads the pack at 294 at-bats, the numbers suggest Young won’t be waiting in the shadows for long.

So, what’s real? The Mariners’ stated intentions, or the analytical forecast that hints at a coming shakeup? Perhaps the truth, as it often does, lies somewhere in between. Spring training will set the opening scene, but the full story may not unfold until midseason. And if the projections are any indication, the final act could leave the Mariners looking far different by season’s end.