Rays' surprise decision wrecks Ex-MLB GM's Mariners free agency prediction

Life is good; the 2024-25 MLB offseason is only a day or so old, and there are already trades happening left and right, with the hot stove heating up to temperatures that promise some action for baseball fans everywhere to try and keep up with. The rumor-mill is hot, and things are only just beginning. The Seattle Mariners have a list of obvious spots in need of an upgrade this offseason, and one MLB insider believes they're going to fill a few of them with some rock-solid options.

Unfortunately, the Tampa Bay Rays opted to make things more complex on Friday afternoon.

In a piece penned by The Athletic's Jim Bowden, he predicted the Mariners would sign first baseman Christian Walker and second baseman Brandon Lowe. Both of these moves would be welcomed by Mariners fans with open arms, as they help fill positions that the club needs help at with bonafide power sources. Unfortunately, nabbing Lowe would now involve a trade, as the Rays chose to pick up his 2025 option rather than decline it, as many expected they would.

MLB insider predicts Mariners will land two new bats in free agency this winter, but Rays have other ideas

Bowden, a former MLB GM, took things even further by predicting the contracts each of these players would get. For Walker, Bowden said a three-year, $72 million pact would get it done. Bowden expected the Mariners could add Lowe on a two-year, $24 million contract after his option was declined. The deadline for that decision was five days post-World Series, and the Rays enthusiastically got ahead of it.

Walker, 33, is one of the game's best all-around first basemen. He has a ton of thump in his bat and also plays arguably the best defensive first base in baseball today. He's an annual 30-home run threat and also has two Gold Gloves to his name.

In 2024, the 10-year veteran hit 26 home runs while driving in 84 runs across 130 games. His .803 OPS and 121 OPS+ were both well above-average, and he continued to be an outstanding run-producer for the D-Backs. Strictly from an offensive standpoint, he'll be the second-best first baseman on the market behind Pete Alonso. Any team that misses out on Alonso will immediately pivot to Walker, but the Mariners would be ecstatic to land the latter on the open market.

It's no wonder why the Rays opted to keep Lowe, a versatile and powerful infielder who has an All-Star Game and two top-10 finishes in AL MVP voting under his belt. He's bounced around on defense a bit over the years, gaining experience at first and second base as well as the outfield corners, but he's primarily lined up at first and second over the past few years.

In 2024, Lowe hit 21 home runs in 107 games for the Rays. He also drove in 58 runs and scored 56 of his own, which is pretty on par for what he's done every year for them in his seven-year career (outside of a huge breakout performance in 2021).

Since the Rays are historically a team that functions on a tight budget, they're going to need some flexibility this offseason, so it felt in line with their ethos to expect them to cut ties with Lowe. Nope. Not yet. The M's might have to get creative here -- or be satisfied with Walker alone.